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Estratégias de Negociação de Alta Probabilidade.

Editora: John Wiley & Sons.

Descrição: Em Estratégias de Negociação de Alta Probabilidade, o autor e bem conhecido educador Robert Miner habilmente delineia todos os aspectos de um plano de negociação prático - desde a entrada até a saída - que ele desenvolveu.

Nota: o ficheiro ebook foi transmitido através de um afiliado externo, pelo que não podemos garantir a existência deste ficheiro nos nossos servidores.

Configurações de probabilidade alta.

para ações e opções.

Direto de traders, investidores e educadores com experiência na linha de frente e know-how técnico, vem uma coleção de mais de 20 de suas estratégias de alto desempenho para negociar ações, opções e ETFs.

© 2018 ExpireInTheMoney. Todos os direitos reservados.

Existe um alto grau de risco envolvido na negociação. Resultados passados ​​não são indicativos de retornos futuros. A ExpireInTheMoney e todos os indivíduos afiliados a este site não assumem responsabilidades pelos seus resultados de negociação e investimento. Os indicadores, estratégias, colunas, artigos e todos os outros recursos são apenas para fins educacionais e não devem ser interpretados como conselhos de investimento. As informações para quaisquer observações de negociação são obtidas de fontes consideradas confiáveis, mas não garantimos sua integridade ou precisão, nem garantimos quaisquer resultados do uso das informações. O uso que você faz das observações de negociação é inteiramente por sua conta e risco e é de sua exclusiva responsabilidade avaliar a exatidão, integralidade e utilidade das informações. Ao fazer o download deste livro, suas informações podem ser compartilhadas com nossos parceiros educacionais. Você deve avaliar o risco de qualquer negociação com seu corretor e tomar suas próprias decisões independentes com relação a quaisquer valores mobiliários mencionados neste documento. As Afiliadas da ExpireInTheMoney podem ter uma posição ou efetuar transações nos valores mobiliários aqui descritos (ou opções sobre elas) e / ou empregar estratégias de negociação que possam ser consistentes ou inconsistentes com as estratégias fornecidas.

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Estratégias de Negociação de Alta Probabilidade.

Entrada para sair de táticas para o Forex, futuros e mercados de ações.

por Robert C. Miner.

série Wiley Trading # 420.

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Em Estratégias de Negociação de Alta Probabilidade, o autor e conhecido educador de negócios Robert Miner habilmente delineia todos os aspectos de um plano de negociação prático - da entrada à saída - que ele desenvolveu ao longo de sua distinta carreira de mais de vinte anos. O resultado é uma abordagem completa à negociação que lhe permitirá negociar com confiança em diversos mercados e prazos. Escrito com o comerciante sério em mente, este recurso confiável detalha uma abordagem comprovada para analisar o comportamento do mercado, identificando configurações de comércio rentáveis ​​e executando e gerenciando negócios - da entrada à saída.

EBook de bônus grátis do nosso patrocinador: Como lucrar com leilões inacabados.

Configurações de alta probabilidade para ações e opções são trazidas a você por.

Como lucrar com leilões inacabados.

Um eBook 100% GRÁTIS do nosso patrocinador, NOFT-Traders.

Não se preocupe, não é uma queda ... (é muito, muito pior)

O pior batedor da história do beisebol.

Uma distinção que nenhum jogador de bola iria querer amarrar ao seu nome. Em 1909, Dodger (não tão grande) Bill Bergen reivindicou esse título e conseguiu mantê-lo por mais de 100 anos. Ele caminhou até o prato e sentou-se novamente sem uma batida de base em 46 bastões consecutivos. Fale sobre futilidade.

No entanto, todos os dias milhões de comerciantes enfrentam resultados semelhantes.

Eles deixam seu mercado sem nada para mostrar pelo seu esforço, mas uma conta limpa. Ou pior ainda, eles realmente conseguem fazer um punhado de negociações vencedoras. Não é suficiente para empatar - mas apenas o suficiente para fazê-los acreditar que têm uma chance.

Se você é como os milhões de Bill Bergen & rsquo; comerciantes lá fora & ndash; você provavelmente passa horas observando seu mercado e estudando gráficos como um falcão. Seus indicadores são ajustados com cuidado e precisão. No entanto, quando você se dirige ao prato para fazer uma negociação, você não sabe que já perdeu antes mesmo de dar um giro.

Não. Nesse caso, você pode se consolar sabendo que praticamente tudo o que você está fazendo está errado.

** A razão pela qual você não está conseguindo é dolorosamente simples: você provavelmente acredita que está negociando em um mercado onde a ação do preço determina os vencedores e os perdedores.

A maioria dos educadores e indicadores nada faz além de reforçar essa crença.

Com cada vela, você realmente está em um leilão. Um onde as forças institucionais de compra e venda inigualáveis ​​determinarão seu destino. Essas forças são invisíveis (e negligenciadas) pela maioria - exceto por algumas poucas.

Os comerciantes que entendem isso são os que ganham muito e ganham consistentemente.

Eles sabem o que assistir, onde entrar e onde sair.

Isenção de Risco.

Existe um alto grau de risco envolvido na negociação. Resultados passados ​​não são indicativos de retornos futuros. A ExpireInTheMoney e todos os indivíduos afiliados a este site não assumem responsabilidades pelos seus resultados de negociação e investimento. Os indicadores, estratégias, colunas, artigos e todos os outros recursos são apenas para fins educacionais e não devem ser interpretados como conselhos de investimento. As informações para observações de negociações de futuros são obtidas de fontes consideradas confiáveis, mas não garantimos sua integridade ou precisão, nem garantimos quaisquer resultados do uso das informações.

O uso que você faz das observações de negociação é inteiramente por sua conta e risco e é de sua exclusiva responsabilidade avaliar a exatidão, integralidade e utilidade das informações. Ao fazer o download deste livro, suas informações podem ser compartilhadas com nossos parceiros educacionais. Você deve avaliar o risco de qualquer negociação com seu corretor e tomar suas próprias decisões independentes com relação a quaisquer valores mobiliários mencionados neste documento. As Afiliadas da ExpireInTheMoney podem ter uma posição ou efetuar transações nos valores mobiliários aqui descritos (ou opções sobre elas) e / ou empregar estratégias de negociação que possam ser consistentes ou inconsistentes com as estratégias fornecidas.

Copyright © 2018 por expirar no dinheiro. Todos os direitos reservados.

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Todos os direitos reservados. Impresso nos Estados Unidos da América. Nenhuma parte desta publicação pode ser reproduzida, armazenada em um sistema de recuperação ou transmitida, de qualquer forma ou por qualquer meio, eletrônico, mecânico, fotocópia, gravação ou outro, sem a permissão prévia por escrito da Sir Isaac Publishing.

A borboleta - um estoque de alta probabilidade & amp; Estratégia de Opções.

Por Larry Gaines, PowerCycleTrading.

Eu aprendi e ensinei muitas estratégias de negociação ao longo do ano, mas quando penso na minha mais valiosa estratégia de negociação de opções de alta probabilidade que poderia ajudar cada um dos traders mais do que qualquer outra coisa - tem que ser o Option Butterfly Spread. !

A grande vantagem da estratégia da Butterfly é sua estrutura inadequada que permite retornos mais consistentes e maiores devido à sua estrutura simples, mas dinâmica. E porque requer apenas uma pequena quantidade do seu capital suado, seu estresse comercial é praticamente eliminado.

Ao contrário de outras estratégias de opções, como condores de ferro, spreads de crédito ou spreads de débito, as borboletas são muito dinâmicas e podem ser negociadas por uma variedade de razões e com diferentes objetivos em mente.

Neste pequeno vídeo, você aprenderá a trocar Borboletas, e seu coberto por ataque e defesa. Objetivos e proteção!

A troca de borboletas é simples.

Descubra esta estratégia de alta recompensa de baixo risco que está esmagando-a.

Acesso a 5 + Hora de Sobrevivência Curso de Borboleta Bônus 1: Suporte de Acompanhamento ao Vivo Q & amp; Um Bônus 2: A Opção Completa Bônus de Manifesto de Estratégia 3: Grego Guia de Ferramentas Elétricas 4: 1 Mês de Avaliação de Sócios & quot; PCT Trading Club & quot;

Autor: Larry Gaines, fundador.

Empresa: Power Cycle Trading.

Serviços oferecidos: Trading Courses, Bootcamps / Coaching, Custom Indicators.

Mercados Cobertos: Ações, Opções, Futuros.

Larry Gaines esteve envolvido no comércio e na corretagem de commodities e mercados financeiros por mais de trinta anos. Hoje, Larry negocia opções e futuros, onde ele gosta de ensinar os outros a gerar renda de negociação usando uma sistemática disciplinada baseada em décadas de experiência em negociação.

Por que os melhores traders ignoram a ação do preço…

Aprenda a técnica de volume oculto que substitui a ação de preço e permite que você lucre à vontade.

Negociação com a nuvem Ichimoku.

Por Robert Deadman, TSAgroup.

Ao longo das décadas, muitos sistemas e métodos de negociação surgiram e desapareceram. Os sistemas de negociação geralmente falham quando os mercados mudam, as volatilidades mudam, a política muda e os jogadores mudam. Com todas essas mudanças, é surpreendente que todos os métodos de negociação tenham sido capazes de realizar qualquer tempo real.

No entanto, existe um método de negociação que se manteve lucrativo, não apenas por meses ou anos, mas por décadas. Parece que um dos mais antigos métodos de negociação, até hoje, ainda é um dos mais confiáveis. Este sistema, conhecido pelo Ocidente simplesmente como Ichimoku, ou pelo seu nome mais antigo de Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, foi comercializado com sucesso por quase 5 décadas desde o seu lançamento.

A história do Ichimoku começa em 1930, quando o jornalista de Tóquio Ichimoku Sanjin & rdquo; (nome real: Goichi Hosada) começou a estudar gráficos de preços tentando descobrir se havia padrões nos mercados. Ao longo dos próximos 30 anos, ele e vários assistentes examinariam gráfico após gráfico, testando ideias e procurando comportamentos que mostrassem sinais de consistência e probabilidade. Na época, os castiçais japoneses eram a principal ferramenta de negociação dos mercados no Japão. Em 1968, Goichi Hosada divulgou seus métodos ao público. Desde então, no Japão, o método tem sido um marco no comércio japonês.

Nos anos 90, os métodos Ichimoku chegaram ao mundo ocidental, mas não foi até os anos 2000 que começou a crescer em popularidade. Neste tempo, muitas pessoas agarraram este touro pelos chifres, mas mais do que isso tiveram dificuldade em entender e / ou implementá-lo. Embora os conceitos por trás disso sejam simples, a coleta de informações que o Ichimoku fornece pode ser esmagadora e difícil de ser tomada.

O conceito por trás do Ichimoku é que ele é basicamente um método de acompanhamento de tendências composto de médias, não de preço, mas de intervalos, e de mudar alguns desses intervalos ao redor do gráfico.

Um exemplo de um gráfico Ichimoku no par de divisas do USDJPY. (Gráfico cortesia do MetaStock)

O termo completo deste método é chamado de "Ichimoku Kinko Hyu & rdquo; e traduz aproximadamente para "Equilíbrio em um olhar." & rdquo; O método é baseado em torno de 5 componentes primários (representados como indicadores) trabalhando juntos para criar uma imagem do que está acontecendo neste momento no gráfico. Os componentes são os seguintes:

O Tenkan Sen, ou Turning Line, é o componente de movimento mais rápido e está próximo do preço. Baseia-se no ponto médio da mais alta e mais baixa mais baixa nos últimos 9 períodos.

O Kijun Sen é a Linha Padrão, e é usado como uma linha de suporte / resistência, mas também como um valor de stop loss para manter um stop móvel quando desejado. É calculado da mesma forma que o Tenkan Sen, mas nos últimos 26 períodos, em vez de 9.

A relação entre o Tenkan Sen e o Kijun Sen é um dos principais componentes do sinal de entrada do método Ichimoku.

A diferença entre os dois indicadores Senkou Span cria a Nuvem Ichimoku, também conhecida como Kumo. Este é o ponto de equilíbrio de um gráfico. À medida que os preços se afastam do Kumo, as tendências podem ocorrer, mas eventualmente voltarão ao alcance do Kumo.

O Senkou Span A é o ponto médio do Sen Tenkan e o Sen Kijun, mudou 26 períodos para a frente.

O Senkou Span B é o ponto médio se a maior alta e a mais baixa baixa nos últimos 52 períodos, passou 26 períodos adiante.

Este indicador é simples, mas surpreendentemente poderoso. É o preço de fechamento atual deslocado 26 períodos para trás. Seu valor está em sua relação com os preços passados ​​e com o Kumo. O valor que o Chikou Span está em relação ao preço 26 períodos atrás é uma indicação da direção da tendência, mas quando é o mesmo valor de 26 períodos atrás, isso se refere a um mercado estagnado que não está mudando significativamente .

Os indicadores Ichimoku Cloud, Tenkan Sen, Kijun Sen e Chikou Span são rotulados em um gráfico. (Gráfico cortesia do MetaStock.)

Negociando o Método Ichimoku.

Há mais no comércio de Ickimoku do que pode ser mostrado neste artigo, mas os fundamentos serão mostrados aqui para que uma compreensão do poder do método possa ser vista.

Em geral, o Ichimoku é um método, e não um sistema. Isso significa que os componentes para determinar entradas e saídas são dinâmicos. A decisão não é feita em um único indicador ou sinal, mas em vez disso, tendo uma visão geral do que o gráfico está fazendo. Apenas dando um passo atrás e vendo tudo o que está acontecendo, pode ser feita uma decisão comercial valiosa.

Mesmo que uma imagem grande seja necessária, ainda existem sinais primários e secundários que são usados ​​para tomar decisões importantes. Aqui estão os sinais predominantes de acordo com o método.

Embora existam muitos sinais dentro do Ichimoku, o sinal TK Cross é um dos dois sinais mais prolíficos que existem. Um sinal é gerado quando o Tenkan Sen cruza acima do Kijun Sen para longas condições, ou quando o Tenkan Sen cruza abaixo do Kijun Sen para condições curtas.

A TK Cross mostra onde há uma mudança na tendência de curto prazo, mas onde a cruz ocorre também. Uma linha de alta pode ter significados diferentes, dependendo se ela cruza abaixo, dentro ou acima do Kumo. Uma linha de alta abaixo do Kumo pode ser o início de uma nova tendência de alta, mas freqüentemente mostra um retrocesso esperando para voltar ao patamar de baixa. Isso é chamado de & ldquo; fraco & rdquo; TK Cross, e geralmente, se for usado, é normalmente usado para sair de uma posição longa.

Quando uma cruz TK de alta ocorre acima do Kumo, esta é frequentemente ligada a uma condição de retração em direção ao Kumo que agora está voltando para cima. Para muitos, trata-se de um sinal de reentrada na direção longa e é chamado de sinal de & ldquo; forte & rdquo; TK Cross.

Quando a cruz TK ocorre dentro do Kumo, isso é chamado de "neutro", já que normalmente é uma posição de espera esperando por outro sinal.

O Relacionamento Preço / Kumo.

O outro sinal predominante é onde o preço fecha em relação ao Kumo. Como o Kumo é o ponto de equilíbrio, as tendências são vistas como expansões ou contrações do Kumo. Movimentos de preço longe do Kumo mostram movimento de tendência, mas o ponto de equilíbrio do Kumo seguirá o preço, agindo como a posição que o preço finalmente quer convergir.

Embora algumas táticas de negociação modernas e avançadas mostrem métodos para colocar operações opostas à relação Preço / Kumo, os componentes básicos do Sistema Ichimoku envolvem a colocação de negociações na direção em que o preço é para o Kumo. Então, se os preços estão acima do Kumo, somente posições longas seriam tomadas, e os preços abaixo do Kumo teriam apenas posições curtas.

A Cruz TK e o Relacionamento Preço / Kumo.

Como esses dois conceitos de negociação são fundamentais, nenhum deles deve ser usado sozinho, e eles devem ser vistos como dependentes um do outro.

Inicialmente, o relacionamento Preço / Kumo é analisado para ver de que lado (se houver) o preço do Kumo. Se o preço estiver acima do Kumo, somente as posições longas serão consideradas. Quando o preço começa a se expandir e se fecha acima do Kumo, a Cruz TK é examinada. Se a última Cruz TK foi uma alta (mesmo que tenha ocorrido abaixo ou dentro do Kumo), então isso se qualificaria como um sinal longo. Se, no entanto, a mais recente TK Cross fosse de baixa, então você esperaria por um sinal de TK Cross de alta. O ponto importante aqui é que o Tenkan Sen está acima do Kijun Sen E o preço está acima do Kumo ao mesmo tempo. O inverso seria verdadeiro para uma posição curta.

TK Cross e Price / Kumo Relationship Signals (Gráfico cortesia do MetaStock)

O Kumo não mostra apenas o equilíbrio atual, mas também onde o ponto de equilíbrio no futuro será. Vendo isso permite que você saiba o quão perto ou longe os preços terão que se mover para invadir a nuvem. Como a nuvem é o ponto de equilíbrio, é a posição em que os negócios são finalizados e os novos negócios iniciados, e saber sua posição futura pode permitir a previsão de um comerciante sobre onde as medidas de proteção devem ser estabelecidas.

Tecnicamente, a direção do Kumo não seria levada em consideração para a direção da tendência. No entanto, a maioria dos traders tem visto que muitas vezes é melhor colocar negócios na direção futura do Kumo, pois isso é visto como uma representação da direção futura do preço.

O método Ichimoku inclui um indicador muito poderoso em sua simplicidade. O Chikou Span é simplesmente o preço de fechamento atual traçado 26 períodos no passado. Esta é uma medida rápida para ver onde os preços atuais estão em relação aos preços 26 períodos atrás. Embora isso possa ser considerado como um indicador básico de taxa de variação de 26 períodos, o valor é importante não apenas para os preços de fechamento anteriores, mas também para os altos e baixos anteriores. À medida que os preços começam a se estabilizar, o Chikou Span começa a se entrelaçar nos altos e baixos de 26 períodos atrás, mostrando claramente que os preços estão limitados ou até mesmo estagnados.

Enquanto isso não constitui uma mensagem para negociações que já estão em jogo, é claro que quando o Chikou Span está se movendo dentro dos preços, os novos negócios não devem ser colocados em nenhuma direção, e que você deve esperar pelo Chikou. Span para sair da faixa de preço para tomar novos negócios, com novas negociações idealmente sendo tomadas na direção da fuga.

O Kumo é estendido 26 Períodos para o futuro. O Chikou Span como conjunto de 26 períodos no passado. (Gráfico cortesia do MetaStock Xenith)

Juntamente com a relação do Chikou Span com o preço, a relação do Chikou Span com o Kumo também é considerada importante, uma vez que ele faz referência aos preços atuais relacionados à medida de equilíbrio do Kumo. Tal como acontece com Chikou Span vs. Price, as mesmas regras aplicam-se à sua relação com o Kumo, com as fugas tendo um significado semelhante. Esta regra não é freqüentemente seguida entre os ocidentais, pois muitas vezes não faz sentido comparar o preço atual com uma perspectiva histórica. Nunca, o menos, é um fator no processo Ichimoku.

As Vantagens e Desvantagens do Ichimoku.

Todo método de negociação tem benefícios e prejuízos. Ao procurar por uma estratégia, a idéia geral é encontrar um sistema onde os benefícios e sucessos superem os prejuízos para que, em geral, um lucro possa ser feito de uma maneira que faça sentido para o comerciante e trabalhe com sua maneira de pensar sobre os mercados. .

Vantagens do Método Ichimoku.

Uma das melhores vantagens do Método Ichimoku é que ele se manteve ao longo do tempo. Em cerca de 50 anos desde o seu lançamento, ainda é muito utilizado e promovido como um sistema muito valioso. Mesmo grupos que testam com parâmetros diferentes para os indicadores continuam voltando para o padrão, mostrando que há pouca melhora ao tentar mudar um sistema tão bem feito.

A outra grande vantagem é que o Método Ichimoku é excelente em sua participação na tendência. Embora existam entradas falsas (como acontece com qualquer sistema), é incrivelmente bom entrar em uma tendência real. Por causa disso, muitos traders acentuam seu comércio Ichimoku com técnicas de escalonamento de posição para capturar mais lucros das tendências existentes.

Uma terceira vantagem é sua consistência com certos mercados. Comerciantes Forex e de commodities têm grande sucesso usando Ichimoku com os instrumentos de alto volume, uma vez que são geralmente altamente tendenciosos.

Desvantagens com Ichimoku.

Como acontece com qualquer sistema, existem algumas desvantagens.

Um gráfico muito ocupado. Embora todos os indicadores transmitam uma grande quantidade de informações, muitas pessoas podem ter dificuldade em determinar valores e posições, uma vez que esses indicadores se entrelaçam com o preço. O software interpretativo pode romper o caos visual e fornecer informações claras rapidamente.

Nem todas as regras funcionam em todos os prazos. À medida que um gráfico se move para prazos menores e menores, as regras mais complexas do Ichimoku tendem a causar prantos. Em prazos significativamente curtos, muitas pessoas mudam-se para apenas a direção futura da Kumo para determinar seus negócios, já que adicionar outros indicadores pode causar muita perda entre comissões e spreads.

Difícil de olhar historicamente com os valores alterados. Ao olhar para um gráfico histórico com os indicadores Ichimoku aplicados, é difícil avaliar rapidamente onde o Kumo e o Chikou Span estão em relação aos dados observados, pois os indicadores são deslocados em direções opostas. Novamente, o software interpretativo pode resolver esse problema permitindo que o profissional veja exatamente onde tudo está em relação um ao outro.

Nenhum critério real de parada e saída definido. Ichimoku tem várias áreas de stop loss sugeridas, mas elas mudam conforme o gráfico muda ao longo do tempo. Ao negociar perto do Kumo, o próprio Kumo é frequentemente usado como área de parada. Ao negociar longe do Kumo, o Kijun Sen é normalmente usado para garantir lucros. Estes valores não são exatos, como as paradas são normalmente sugeridas em torno destas áreas, se diretamente sobre eles é desconfortável para o comerciante. Muitos comerciantes também consideram uma Cruz TK na direção oposta de um comércio como uma regra de saída.

Um dos aspectos mais fascinantes de Ichimoku é como tantos outros comerciantes tentaram melhorar isso. A maioria dos pesquisadores e desenvolvedores de sistemas acaba voltando ao básico após um projeto rigoroso. De vez em quando, alguém descobrirá como ajustar uma regra um pouco, mesmo que seja algo que funcione apenas para uma segurança específica. Esses ajustes algumas vezes mostraram ser muito lucrativos.

Como acontece com qualquer sistema ou método de negociação, sinta-se à vontade para experimentar os sinais para encontrar algo que funcione para você e para o seu estilo de negociação. Apenas com o tempo e a experiência você pode ter a sensação de que o Método Ichimoku é para você, como muitos outros traders descobriram que certamente é para eles.

Embora o Ichimoku seja um indicador útil, os novos usuários podem descobrir que acompanhar e aprender os indicadores pode ser bastante complexo. Para ajudar os usuários com isso, nós construímos um complemento do MetaStock que ajudará:

Alertar os usuários para as oportunidades Bullish e Bearish Acompanhe a orientação bullish / bearish dos seis principais sinais Ichimoku Identificar os principais níveis de suporte / resistência usando o Kaijun e Kumo Fornecer informações detalhadas sobre os indicadores Scan mercados inteiros para encontrar os melhores sinais de entrada atuais.

Clique abaixo para ver um pequeno vídeo sobre este produto e qualificar-se para um desconto especial:

Autor: Robert Deadman, fundador.

Empresa: Trading Systems Analysis Group.

Serviços oferecidos: Trading Software, Data Feed Service.

Mercados cobertos: Ações, Opções, Futuros, Forex.

Robert James Deadman esteve envolvido em análise de negociações desde 1985 e cobriu pesquisas em muitas áreas, incluindo análise estatística, inteligência artificial e aprendizado de máquina.

Cinco jogos de dividendos de dois dígitos para garantir seu “segundo salário”

Por Keith Fitz-Gerald, profissionais de negociação e investimentos.

Muitas pessoas ficam surpresas ao saber que a renda e o reinvestimento de dividendos podem representar até 90% do retorno total do mercado de ações ao longo do tempo, de acordo com a Guinness Atkinson Funds.

Você ouviu esse direito: 90%.

Imagine que você investiu US $ 100 no S & P 500 no final de 1940.

Sem dividendos, você teria terminado com US $ 12.000 até 2012.

Mas se você reinvestir seus dividendos, você teria acabado com $ 174.000. Isso é 14,5 vezes mais.

Mesmo se você optar por não reinvestir & ndash; se você quiser renda agora, trimestre após trimestre ou mesmo mês após mês & ndash; os dividendos podem ser geradores de renda extremamente poderosos para garantir o seu "segundo salário".

Desde 2000, empresas como a McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), por exemplo, aumentaram seus pagamentos em mais de 1.650%, debilitando o crescimento da inflação e enriquecendo os investidores de um crescente fluxo de renda.

Como você pode ver, os dividendos podem funcionar como mágica quando se trata de atingir suas metas financeiras e uma aposentadoria segura. Em mercados de alta, como os de hoje, eles se movem ao lado de empresas. ganhos. Eles também são seguros fantásticos contra as condições do mercado, e indispensáveis ​​quando o Federal Reserve (Fed, o banco central americano) está punindo poupadores e investidores de renda, mantendo as taxas de juros próximas de zero.

Especialmente atraentes são as ações com pagamento de dividendos com rendimentos nos dois dígitos (10% +). São raras: das mais de 3.000 ações listadas no NASDAQ, apenas cerca de 6% têm dividendos de dois dígitos. Mas isso ainda deixa mais de 200 para escolher apenas na NASDAQ.

Muitos investidores de renda restringem ainda mais o campo simplesmente optando pelas ações com o maior rendimento de dividendos. Mas a capacidade de uma empresa continuar pagando e aumentando seu dividendo é tão importante a longo prazo, se não mais.

É por isso que montamos essa lista de meus pagadores de dividendos de dois dígitos favoritos que têm modelos de negócios que podem sustentar altos rendimentos nos próximos anos.

Vamos dar uma olhada.

Pimco Strategic Income Fund Inc. (NYSE: RCS)

Se você tivesse aberto uma posição na RCS com apenas US $ 10.000 há pouco mais de oito anos atrás, & ndash; em janeiro de 2009 & ndash; e reinvestido ao longo do caminho, você estará agora com US $ 21.964,64 e um retorno anualizado de mais de 10,3%. Isso é até mesmo através da crise financeira e "slowcovery & rdquo; que levou mais do que um punhado de outros fundos para o chão.

Chamei a RCS de minha máquina de dinheiro favorita & rdquo; no passado por causa de sua capacidade de entregar rendimentos de dois dígitos aos investidores em uma & ndash mensal; não trimestralmente & ndash; base. Reinvestidos, esses pagamentos mensais são muito mais rápidos do que os trimestrais, especialmente com um rendimento inicial tão alto quanto o RCS oferece.

O fluxo de renda mensal ininterrupto é uma das principais razões pelas quais os fundos retornaram apenas cerca de 25% para os assinantes que seguiram junto com a minha recomendação há pouco mais de um ano no meu serviço premium Money Map Report.

Este jogo e outros como este não mostram sinais de abrandar.

Existem algumas razões pelas quais.

Primeiro, o RCS cresceu 12% em relação ao ano passado e está sendo negociado com um prêmio de 20,11% sobre o valor patrimonial líquido (NAV), de acordo com a Morningstar. Esse prêmio desativaria a maioria dos investidores à primeira vista. Mas considere o fato de que o NAV está tendendo para baixo após o pico em agosto do ano passado (em 33,89%), e você verá nossa oportunidade de compra. Em si e por si só, isso torna a RCS atraente simplesmente porque ela tem negociado em um prêmio de 19,54% para NAV nos últimos quatro anos em média.

Em segundo lugar, o RCS é muito estável. Seu beta é apenas 0,47, o que significa que é aproximadamente 53% menos volátil do que os mercados mais amplos, que carregam uma versão beta de 1,0.

Grande parte dessa estabilidade vem do fato de que a RCS mantém um prazo médio ajustado pela alavancagem de 2,74 anos versus os fundos típicos de obrigações que refletem um prazo médio de 5 a 7 anos. Isso torna o fundo menos volátil do que as alternativas de renda comparáveis ​​quando as taxas aumentam.

Terceiro, o RCS oferece um rendimento de dar água na boca de aproximadamente 10,26% no momento. Com o tempo, isso realmente aumenta e pode aumentar significativamente seus retornos.

Se há uma desvantagem, é que a RCS tem cerca de 80% de suas participações em ativos lastreados em hipotecas, portanto, há alguns "reembolsos". risco.

Se você nunca ouviu o termo antes, isso significa que os mutuários podem pagar suas obrigações antes do vencimento declarado, de modo que os administradores de fundos que possuírem os instrumentos subjacentes com risco de pagamento podem ter que se esforçar para substituir o fluxo de caixa.

Eu não estou especialmente preocupado com isso no momento, no entanto. O risco de amortização é um negócio muito maior quando as taxas estão em queda, porque as taxas em queda dificultam a substituição do fluxo de caixa, porque podem não ser capazes de reimplantar o capital em taxas suficientemente altas para atender aos requisitos de fluxo de caixa existentes.

As taxas crescentes são uma história diferente, porque as taxas mais altas geralmente oferecem maior fluxo de caixa. De qualquer forma, os gerentes de portfólio Daniel Ivascyn e Daniel Hyman parecem ter as coisas sob controle.

O RCS nunca perdeu um único pagamento mensal, mesmo durante as profundidades da crise financeira de 2008-2009, e não parece provável que o faça num futuro próximo.

Oxford Lane Capital Corp. (NasdaqGS: OXLC)

(NasdaqGS: OXLC) é um fundo mútuo que investe em obrigações de empréstimo garantidas (CLOs), que são coleções de empréstimos corporativos garantidos subscritos pelos bancos.

A maioria dos investidores não está familiarizada com os CLOs, mas eles têm uma série de vantagens sobre os títulos e outras fontes de rendimento que permitem que a Oxford Lane tenha um rendimento de dividendos de 22,12%.

Primeiro, diferentemente das obrigações de dívida colateralizadas (CDOs) baseadas em hipotecas subprime que causaram tantos problemas durante o crash financeiro de 2008, as CLOs se saíram bem mesmo quando os mercados entraram em colapso em torno deles. Na verdade, os investidores que mantiveram seus investimentos em CLO durante o acidente ou compraram na parte inferior tiveram um retorno anual de até 20%.

Em segundo lugar, ao contrário dos títulos de alto rendimento, os CLOs contêm empréstimos corporativos subscritos por bancos e garantidos por ativos corporativos, resultando em perdas de crédito muito menores.

Terceiro, os bancos que criam CLOs podem tomar emprestado a taxas de juros muito baixas, permitindo-lhes alavancar seus CLOs e aumentar seu retorno sobre o patrimônio para 20 a 30%, muito acima de qualquer obrigação.

E para tornar os pagamentos de dividendos trimestrais ainda mais seguros, a política da Oxford Lane é pagar seu dividendo apenas com o fluxo de caixa real da carteira de investimentos do fundo, o que significa que o fundo em si não é excessivamente alavancado.

Essa estratégia tem valido a pena para a Oxford Lane, com a empresa mais do que dobrando sua receita líquida de investimentos no ano fiscal de 2015, alcançando US $ 21.274.028 em comparação com US $ 10.087.821 no ano anterior. Isso se traduziu em dividendos anuais estáveis ​​que cresceram 37% nos seis anos desde a fundação da empresa.

Arlington Asset Investment Corp. (NYSE: AI)

Sediada em Arlington, Virgínia, a Arlington Asset Investment Corp. (NYSE: AI) é uma empresa de investimento de capital aberto que mistura a estabilidade do investimento muni com as recompensas de alta renda dos BDCs.

Eu estive no registro por meses recomendando AI como um jogo de renda promissor com seu suculento rendimento de 16,28%. E recentemente, algumas das mentes mais brilhantes das finanças mostraram que concordam.

Analisando a longa lista de nomes famosos que aumentaram dramaticamente suas participações na IA no ano passado, a empresa que imediatamente se apega a mim é a Renaissance Technologies, que aumentou sua participação em ações da AI arrebatando outras 87.000 ações para cobrir as 624.000 ações segurando anteriormente tinha reivindicado.

Se o nome Renaissance Technologies não toca, é a empresa fundada pelo lendário Dr. James Simon.

Anunciado por alguns como "o bilionário mais inteligente do mundo", & rdquo; este ex-professor de matemática de Harvard acumulou uma fortuna de mais de US $ 16 bilhões, explorando brilhantemente as ineficiências do mercado & ndash; e escolher home runs de monstros apoiando biotecnologias emergentes e fundos subvalorizados como o OZM.

Ele colocou com sucesso o dinheiro de sua empresa na frente de algumas explosões épicas de ações, como a Questcor, Jazz Pharmaceuticals, e a Amgen, a menos lucrativa da qual obteve ganhos de mais de 17.000%.

Atualmente, seu fundo administra mais de US $ 65 bilhões em ativos. Nada mal para um cara que tentou pela primeira vez investir apenas US $ 5.000 em seu nome!

Agora, a empresa do Dr. Simon pode ter sido cedo para esse ofício, mas eu duvido muito que esteja errado.

E, como a AI trata os investidores de suas lucrativas entregas de renda, é improvável que dê a alguém um bom passeio.

Na verdade, o beta da empresa medido pelo Yahoo! Finance é um 1.09 extremamente estável (quanto mais próximo de 1, menor a volatilidade), tornando-se uma forte opção de investimento de aposentadoria para pessoas que em primeiro lugar estão preocupadas em não perder eles têm.

Essa estabilidade, a propósito, é exatamente o que você espera de um negócio que reúna renda por meio de hipotecas apoiadas pelo governo dos EUA. Pode não ser o campo mais empolgante, mas com certeza paga as contas, como você verá no fluxo de receita trimestral de dividendos dessa empresa.

Dividendos são a imensa vantagem a ter em conta quando se trata de AI. A empresa tem um rendimento de dividendos de 16,28%, e esses pagamentos cresceram ao longo dos anos. No verão de 2010, por exemplo, a IA pagou apenas US $ 0,35 / ação em dividendos, em comparação com os US $ 0,625 pagos no último trimestre. Isso é um aumento de 78%.

Em 30 de setembro de 2016, a carteira de investimentos da agência da empresa totalizava US $ 4,83 bilhões, consistindo em US $ 3,66 bilhões em títulos garantidos por hipotecas de agências e US $ 1,170 bilhão em títulos de agências de longo prazo líquidos a serem anunciados.

A AI tem uma margem de lucro de 38,81%, que é mais forte do que a da Apple, da Alphabet, da Microsoft ou de qualquer outra tecnologia querida por mais investidores. Essa dinâmica permitiu que ela pagasse dividendos aos investidores desde 2003, e a empresa tem US $ 3,72 bilhões em caixa, o que significa que seu fluxo de renda generoso para os investidores não deve secar nos próximos anos.

Ticc Capital Corp. (NasdaqGS: TICC)

Durante a estagflação do início dos anos 80, Washington DC criou uma segurança não convencional que permite que investidores regulares ajudem a financiar startups privadas promissoras. O resultado foi o Business Development Corporation (BDC).

Os BDCs são geradores de renda extremamente poderosos devido à sua estrutura tributária. Simplificando, eles são taxados como empresas de investimento regulares e, portanto, pagam pouco ou nenhum imposto de renda corporativo, desde que distribuam pelo menos 90% de sua renda para os investidores.

Esse requisito significa que os BDCs corretos podem ser máquinas de receita para os investidores. Rendimentos de dois dígitos não são nada incomuns & ndash; e eles são frequentemente sustentados por anos.

E essa é a oportunidade que encontrei para você hoje com a Ticc Capital Corp. (NYSE: TICC).

O BDC oferece um impressionante rendimento de 16,70%, o que é suficiente para gerar $ 16.700 por ano em renda para cada $ 100k arrumados & ndash; antes mesmo de começarmos a falar sobre ganhos de capital.

Com CNBC informando que a pessoa de trabalho média com idades entre 56-61 tem $ 163.577 para o seu nome, o rendimento de 16,7% do TICC significaria um fluxo de renda $ 27.316 por ano & ndash; que equivale a US $ 2.276 / mês de lucro tributável.

Apesar de seus generosos pagamentos aos acionistas, a Ticc Capital é altamente lucrativa, com uma margem de lucro de 9,83% e fluxo de caixa operacional de US $ 315,16 milhões.

O que é especialmente interessante sobre as perspectivas da Ticc Capital como investimento de renda para sustentar a aposentadoria de qualquer pessoa é o fato de que ela continua a reinvestir em si mesma, mesmo que pague primeiro aos acionistas (generosamente).

Em seu mais recente relatório de lucros, o conselho da TICC aprovou outro pagamento de dividendos, ao mesmo tempo em que confirmou que o BDC alocou US $ 58,4 milhões para investimentos de capital.

Em outras palavras, o atual rendimento de dois dígitos da TICC poderia não apenas continuar, mas crescer nos próximos anos; e crescer investidores aposentados & rsquo; padrões de vida com isso.

PennantPark Investment Corp. (NasdaqGS: PNNT)

Based in New York and founded in 2007, PennantPark Investment Corp. not only survived – but thrived through the financial crisis as a fund in its infancy years. Like TICC, the fund is focused on business development, lending to firms in the middle market. So far, the firm has funded nearly $4 billion in financing to companies at center of growth in the domestic economy.

For a time, PNNT was heavily lending to firms in the energy sector – an industry that once thrived in the fracking era, but hit a particularly difficult stretch as the 2014 supply glut cratered the majority of oil companies.

PNNT wasn’t affected though, thanks to its rock-solid balance sheet. In fact, its dividend payments never wavered. Not only that, but shareholders at the time enjoyed a year-end yield increase from 11.75% to 18.12% from 2014 to 2015, at the height of the energy sector’s troubling times.

Despite recession, supply glut, and credit crises, PNNT maintained a solid track record of capital recovery. This, combined with the fund’s disciplined focus and the increasingly bright-looking future for the energy sector under President Trump, makes me confident that investors can not only feel secure in this fund as an income play, but can also expect attractive returns in the future.

Overall, PennantPark is positioned to play a crucial role as the nation’s wealth undergoes a massive shift under a new presidential administration, making it a solid momentum play as well as a dependable “second salary” oportunidade.

Best regards for great investing,

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Dividend Capture With Covered Calls.

By Mike Scanlin, BornToSell.

The only thing better than an asset that produces an income stream is an asset that produces TWO income streams. In this chapter we will discuss how to generate two income streams (dividends and option premium) from a single asset (shares of stock). We'll also show a brief video on how to use software to quickly find good dividend stocks to write covered calls on.

Most large companies pay dividends. In fact, 84% of the S&P 500 companies (420 of the 500 companies) pay dividends. There are some notable (large) companies among the 80 that do not pay dividends: Amazon, Facebook, and Google, for example. These companies are still growing and tend to use their profits for new growth initiatives rather than return it to shareholders.

As of today, Aug 1, the S&P 500 average yield is 1.91%. Relatively low but not surprising given an 8 year bull market that has increased stock prices, as well as the current low interest rate environment (which means that companies don't need to pay high dividends to attract investors).

Historically, the S&P 500 average dividend yield has been higher, typically above 3% for the 100 years prior to Black Monday in 1987:

Of course, that 1.91% is an average. Many S&P 500 companies pay quite a bit more than that.

Top 12 Dividend Yields In S&P 500.

Some stocks pay more than double the average dividend yield. For example, here are a dozen S&P 500 stocks that currently have a dividend yield of 4.9% or more:

If all you wanted was a 5% per year income stream, you could just buy a portfolio of stocks that had an average dividend yield of 5% per year or more (such as those above).

But if you want even more income, then you can layer on a covered call strategy on top of dividend paying stocks. Before we talk about that, let's review when you need to own a stock in order to receive its dividend.

A stock's Ex-Dividend Date (also known as ex-div date or ex date) is the first day the stock trades without the dividend. In order to receive the dividend you must own the stock by the close of market on the day before the ex-dividend date.

For example, if a stock has an ex-div date of March 5, you must own the stock by close of market on March 4 in order to receive the dividend.

If you sell your stock before the ex-div date then you will NOT receive the dividend.

Likewise, if you buy the stock on the ex-div date you will NOT receive the dividend.

If you want to hold the stock for as little time as possible and still get the dividend, you can buy the stock just before the market closes the day before the ex-div date and then sell the stock just after the market opens on the ex-dividend date. You may make or lose a little on the stock, but you will get the dividend for sure.

Other Dividend Dates (Which You Can Ignore)

Although the ex-dividend date is the only date that matters to most investors, there are 3 other dates that relate to dividends: declaration date, record date, and payable date. Although important, all you need to focus on is the ex-div date. As long as you own the stock by the end of day on the day before the ex date then you will get paid the dividend (although you won't receive the money until the payable date).

The declaration date is the date the company declares the dividend (approves and announces it). This is just an informational date and can vary from days to weeks prior to the ex-dividend date. It only matters because a dividend isn't official until it is declared by the company's Board of Directors.

The record date is the date by which you need to be a shareholder of record in order to receive the dividend. It is normally 2 days after the ex-dividend date because it takes a couple of days for share transactions to settle. So you have to buy the stock before the ex date in order to have the transaction settle (ie. be a shareholder of record) on the record date. Holidays come into play sometimes, too. But you can ignore all this and just focus on the ex date to know if you're going to get the dividend or not.

The payable date is the day you actually receive the cash from the dividend. It can be days to weeks after the record date. You can sell your stock before the payable date and still receive the dividend payment (as long as you own the stock the day before the ex-dividend date thru the morning of the ex date you will receive the dividend).

Why Ex-Dividend Dates Matter To Covered Call Writers.

Sometimes covered call writers will be subject to early exercise (meaning, the buyer of the option will exercise his right to purchase your stock before the option expiration date) just so they can capture the dividend. If this is going to happen then it usually happens to ITM (in-the-money) options the day before the ex-dividend date. But normally it will only happen if the amount of time premium remaining in the option is zero or a few pennies.

Example Of Early Exercise.

You own 100 shares of ABC stock, and it's currently trading at $51/share. You had previously sold a call option with a 40 strike, and that option is currently trading for $11 (at parity, no time premium remaining because it's 11 points ITM). ABC goes ex-dividend tomorrow and will pay a $0.50 dividend.

Will the option holder do an early exercise on you today?

Yes, because tomorrow morning (the ex-div date) the stock will open lower by the amount of dividend paid ($0.50), and deep ITM options will be lower by that same amount. In order to avoid a loss equal to the amount of the dividend, most deep ITM options with no (or very little) time premium remaining will be exercised.

If the option had more than a few pennies of time premium remaining then the option would probably not be exercised. Depending on the bid-ask spread for the option holder, as well as his commission rates, he would probably be better off just selling his option rather than exercising it.

And this is probably obvious but if a stock does not pay a dividend (and therefore has no ex-dividend date) then the odds of early exercise are practically zero (because the person doing the early exercise is giving up any remaining time premium -- he'd be better off just selling his option rather than exercising it).

Writing Covered Calls On Stocks About To Go Ex-Dividend.

Shorting a call option on a stock you own just before its ex-dividend date is a common income-oriented strategy. Assuming the covered call is not exercised, you will receive both the dividend income and the call option income. Vamos ver um exemplo:

Example Dividend Capture With Covered Call.

Today is Aug 1. Tomorrow, Aug 2, is the ex-dividend date for CF. The stock trades at 29.26 per share and the dividend is 30 cents. So, if we were to buy 100 shares of CF today and then sell an August 18 expiration, 30-strike call option (trading at 78 cents right now), we would receive both the 78 cents from the option and the 30 cents from the dividend. That's 1.08 per share of income in about a month on a $29 stock. Here's the math:

Buy 100 shares of stock: $29.26 per share = $2926.

Sell 1 call option: Aug 18 expiration, 30-strike call option for 78 cents = $78 income.

Tomorrow's dividend of 30 cents = $30 income.

Now, if we hold the stock until August 18 and if the stock is unchanged between now and then, we could sell the stock for $29.26 and our return would be:

Total income = $108.

Total investment = $2926.

Return = 108 / 2926 = 3.69% in 18 days, which is 75% annualized.

In The Money vs Out Of The Money Covered Calls.

In the previous example the strike price ($30) was above the stock price ($29.26), which is the very definition of an 'out-of-the-money' (OTM) covered call. While there is potential for some upside capital gain (the difference between the strike price and the stock price), there is also risk that the underlying stock will go down before expiration, thus reducing or eliminating the income generated.

A way to reduce that risk is to use ITM (in-the-money) strike prices instead of OTM strike prices. Instead of a 30-strike we could have used a 29-strike, for example. This removes any chance of a capital gain but it provides much more downside protection. Because, if the stock drops from 29.26 to 29 you will still make a profit from the dividend and the option premium. If the stock drops below 29 then you may have a loss, depending on how far the stock drops. Nothing is risk-free.

How To Quickly Find Stocks About To Go Ex-Dividend.

You can use software such as Born To Sell's covered call screener to identify all stocks that have a dividend coming up. Just use the Search Dividends feature and set the Expiration Date slider to the option expiration date you are most interested in. The software will find all stocks that have an ex-dividend date before your chosen option expiration date, and then show you matching covered calls. Below is a 3-minute video of this dividend capture feature and process in action:

140 Opportunities Per Month.

If we only count the 420 S&P 500 dividend-paying stocks, and if we assume they pay dividends 4x per year (quarterly), that's 1680 dividend capture opportunities per year, or about 140 per month. The challenge is being able to find them quickly, and at the same time remove high-risk situations such as an earnings release before expiration, or super high P/E ratio stocks. The Born To Sell software does all of this for you.

Here is a screen shot of the results from a covered call dividend capture screen for the August expiration, with earnings releases (i. e. high volatility risk events) removed, as of today. Many of these are in-the-money, and all of them have an Annualized Return If Flat of 36% or more (greater than 3%/month):

We have created a special offer for Born To Sell's covered call screener (including the dividend capture feature). You get 2 weeks free (with no obligation to pay anything if you cancel within the first 14 days) PLUS you get additional free bonus months depending on the length of subscription you sign up for. You could get 1, 2 or 4 months free for a monthly, quarterly, or annual subscription.

To claim your free bonus months, follow the instructions here before August 26th:

Services Offered: Screening Tools, Portfolio Management Software.

Markets Covered: Stocks and Options.

Mike is an active investor and has the majority of his own money invested in covered calls. He is a frequent writer and speaker on the subject of covered calls.

How to Retire in 5 Years or Less on $13,000 per Month, Tax Free.

By Peter Schultz, CashFlowHeavenPublishing.

Is it really possible to retire in five years or less on $13,000 per month, tax-free? At Cashflow Heaven, that’s exactly what we teach. What we do is teach people how to safely and effectively generate cash flow from the stock market, tax-free. Once you learn how to do that, you can literally create an income—and perhaps even financial independence—from anywhere in the world you can find an Internet connection.

It is important to realize that as appealing as that sounds, you are going to need a really good plan to make it happen. The strategy needs to be safe and it needs to work consistently. The truth is,$13,000 per month is a pretty tall order. So how do we do that?

Well, it’s an especially daunting task if you try and generate that income the way most people do it—the traditional way. If you’ve met with a professional financial advisor, you know that can be a pretty sobering experience. For example if you want to generate $13,000 per month it comes to $156,000 per year ($13,000 per month x 12 months).

Conventional Investing for Retirement Requires a Lot of Money—Maybe Too Much Money.

At conventional interest rates, you are going to need a lot of money working for you to generate that level of income—maybe more than you have. For example, the interest rate on the 10-year Treasury bond is hovering around 2%--and the dividend yield on the S&P 500 is also around 2%.

So at an annual rate of return of 2% you are going to need $7,800,000 to generate $156,000 per year. That's a huge amount of money. If you've got that kind of money, congratulations. However you don't have to be good at demographics or statistics to know that most of us don't. If you're dealing with somewhat less than that, you need a good plan.

Maybe you’re a little bit better at getting returns. Maybe you're a good investor—maybe you've invested in some higher-paying dividend stocks, and you can generate 5% per year. Even at 5%, you're going to need over $3 million to generate $156,000. As you can see, at today's returns and today's interest rates, you need a tremendous amount of money to create a really good income.

You don’t necessarily need to get hung up on the $13,000 per month figure. Maybe you don't need that much money, maybe you need a lot less. We're just using that as an example because that's an amount most people can live on pretty comfortably (if you keep your trips to Starbucks to a minimum!).

To Retire in Style, We Need Substantially Better Returns.

To reach our goal, we need to get substantially better returns than what the conventional strategies offer. Most people have mutual funds along with some dividend stocks, but are dissatisfied with their returns and want to do better.

You may be an individual who's really investigated trading and perhaps you're doing a lot of trading right now. Some people are even day trading. The problem with that is you can get mixed results. Many active traders I’ve spoken with go one step forward and two steps backward. You can have losses, and it can be pretty stressful. Sometimes the market throws some pretty frustrating curve balls.

So even if you are an active trader and enjoy it, take a look at this method because it's a way to generate some good monthly income that tends to grow faster than any other strategy out there—and you don't have to worry so much. If you're an active trader, that alone is going to be a refreshing change. In the world of investments, however, there's always uncertainty, and if you've been out there, you know that. We need as much going for us as possible, and this plan has a mathematical probability of success that is greater than 80%.

The trick with any investing is to try and get the greatest amount of return possible for the lowest amount of risk. And that's what this program is focused on—high probability and high returns. Most investment advisors tell you that’s impossible—to get high returns you must take on higher risk—but that’s not true if you have a mathematical edge.

To Make Far Better Returns Safely—Get a Nobel-Prize-Winning Formula Working for You.

Como fazemos isso? How do we engineer high returns and a high probability of winning? We're basing our expectations on a formula that is so remarkable it won the Nobel Prize back in 1997 for the mathematicians that discovered it.

The formula was actually developed back in the early 70s, and it made standardized options and the modern options market possible back in 1973. That formula is called the Black-Scholes Options Pricing Model—and here’s what it looks like:

Now, if you are thinking that looks really complicated and wondering how are you going to figure it out, well, don’t worry—you don’t have to. The metaphor I like to use is that you don't need to know all the complex workings of the internal combustion engine to drive your car to the bank—and it’s the same idea here. You just need to know enough to take advantage of it.

We’re going to use this formula to stack the odds in our favor, and to set up a mathematical expectation of winning the majority of the time. The key to using this formula to our advantage is to be selling options instead of buying them.

This gets into a really interesting area of psychology. Most options traders are buying options. The reason is they are looking for a home run—they want to double or triple their money in a very short amount of time. And the truth is, if you buy options, you will get some big winners.

But there’s a problem with that approach. If you talk to a lot of options traders, they’ll typically tell you things were going really good for a while, and then all of a sudden they blew up their account. They lost all their money.

A funny thing happens in the stock market: sometimes the things that you think are going to happen don't. You get surprises. The market turns around. It reverses. The Fed makes a certain announcement. The company that you're betting on comes out with a warning, or whatever. Whatever you thought was going to happen didn't--and that’s what makes options buyers go broke.

How to Jump on the Right Side of Options Trading.

When you become an option seller you are on the opposite side of that trade, so the odds jump considerably in your favor. A lot of surprises can happen and you can still make money. That's what I love about selling options. I've been an options trader for a long time now and I still occasionally buy an option when there's a really good setup—but the vast majority of the time I’m selling options because it’s so forgiving.

When we talk about selling options, we’re not talking about covered calls or selling naked. The strategy I’m talking about is selling credit spreads. When you sell a credit spread, you immediately take in money, and it's pretty inspiring to see that cash hit your account right off the bat.

A credit spread is simply selling an option and then buying another option to hedge. The option we're selling is more valuable than the one we're buying so it creates a credit in our account. A credit, if you don't know, is money that you can use for anything you want—to buy the things you need, or to build up in your account, or to reinvest for even great profits.

So How Do We Sell a Credit Spread for Immediate Cash?

Let’s take a look. In the chart below you can see the stock going up and down, but it’s in a general uptrend. What we want to do is sell an option strike that's likely never going to get touched by the stock.

The stock is up at 107 and we’re going to sell a put option down at 99 and we're also going to buy another option as a hedge below it at 98. That limits our risk to just the distance between them, and in this case, that's just a dollar.

We're selling the 99 puts for 30 cents and buying the 98 puts for 23 cents and as you can see, there's a finish line on October 28. So in this case we’ve got about three weeks until expiration. One of the beauties of this strategy is you always know where your finish line is. At some point, in the not too distant future, these options are going to cease to exist. And if that time comes and the stock isn’t below 99—then both options expire worthless. And if you sell these spreads correctly, that’s exactly what happens the vast majority of the time.

If you ask speculative options buyers how they lost money, they’ll almost always tell you their option ran out of time before the stock could move in their direction. When that happens, the options seller is the one who makes the money. That’s who wins the majority of the time, and that’s who we want to be.

So What Can You Make on This Trade?

If we sell the 99 puts for .30 and buy the 98 puts for .23 we collect a net of .07 cents on that trade—or $700 for 100 contracts. To figure out our rate of return, we divide that .07 credit by our possible loss. The maximum that you can lose is the distance between the strikes, in this case, that's $1 but we've already taken in seven cents so the maximum we can lose is 93 cents. If we divide seven cents by 93 cents, it comes to a 7.5% return before commissions. For three weeks of time, that's 2-1/2% per week. If you get out your calculator and figure out what 2 ½% per week adds up to over time, you could become extremely rich trading this strategy.

These returns can pile up on themselves pretty quickly. It's like the old compounding illustration with the chessboard where you take a penny and put it on square one and you go to the next square and double it and go to the next square then double that, and then keep doing that for the rest of the squares on the board.

That's the way these compounding returns work—you make money on the money you just made. We get some pretty decent returns, so keep in mind, people are hoping to make 2% or 3% on their money for a year with bonds and regular dividend stocks. We're talking about making 7.5% in just three weeks!

These Returns Can Get Pretty Exciting—but It Gets Even Better…

You can also go above the stock and do the same thing with a call spread and take in another 7.5%. Now we're up to 15% for that same three weeks of time. We've got lots of room for the stock to move, but not a lot of time to do it, so you tend to win on these trades the majority of the time.

If you have a stock that's going up, you want to sell put spreads. If you have a stock that's going down, you want to sell call spreads. But oftentimes the stock is moving up and down within a range so we can sell both spreads, collect a double return, and have that stock stay within the range we’ve defined with both expiring worthless.

When we sell both call spreads and put spreads on the same stock, they are called ‘wings,’ and the whole trade is called an Iron Condor.

You can see how forgiving these trades are because we're staying away from the stock price and giving the stock room to move. The stock can go up a little bit, it can go down a little bit, it can waver all around and you still end up winning.

That Sounds Good, But How Do You Know What Your Chances of Winning Are?

You can look at the above trade and think the chances of winning are pretty good—but how do you know? Well, one of the neat things about options is that they are based on a mathematical formula. So whenever we want to sell an option, we can instantly see what the odds are that will expire worthless. That's one of the really cool advantages of this strategy—I don't know anywhere else you can do that.

Our favorite broker for this strategy is Thinkorswim, because they have such good analytical tools, and such a great trading platform. Fortunately, with a little guidance, their platform is not hard to use—in fact, I'll show you a little bit of it right here:

This is the trading platform at Thinkorswim, and if you look at the column on the far right, you’ll see a heading that says ‘Prob OTM’—that means ‘Probability of being Out of the Money’. In other words, it tells you the exact mathematical probability of this trade winning—because if the sold strike expires out of the money, the options seller wins.

One of the red arrows on the platform above points to the 98 strike price and the other points to the 99 strike price. We want to focus on the 99 strike price because that’s the one we sold. If we follow the red arrow all the way over to the far right column, we’ll see that the probability of this strike expiring out-of-the-money is 88.96%—so those are our odds of winning--which is pretty high.

It’s interesting that these probabilities actually do tend to play out over the long run, which makes your odds of winning close to nine out of 10 trades. Which is fantastic, but even on the trades that become threatened, there are things we can do to fix them when they do go against us.

Trade with Confidence Knowing You Can Fix Trades that Aren’t Working Out.

We call these little fixes “adjustments” and they give you a second chance to win if the trade doesn’t work out the first time. Everybody's always very interested in adjustments because they give you a kind of “get out of jail free card” where you can fix those one out of 10 or two out of 10 trades that aren’t working out.

Knowing how to adjust gives you a lot of confidence, which is important if you are trying to use this strategy to retire.

I know it sounds crazy, but sometimes I welcome a trade that needs to be adjusted because it says 2 things:

Number 1 , we're selling close enough to the underlying to have to adjust once in a while. “Selling close” means we're bringing in more money. In other words, we're right at that edge where we're bringing in the maximum amount of dollars and still trying to minimize our risk. When you do that, when you sell a little closer to the underlying, once in a while you're going to have to adjust, but that's okay because we have some great ways of doing that.

Number 2 , we have the means to adjust our way out of almost any situation. That makes you feel pretty darn confident in trading this way. Now I just want to be clear upfront, it is possible to lose trading credit spreads. The market can do crazy things, so it’s good to know that even in a worst-case scenario, the amount you can lose is absolutely limited—that’s why we buy that hedge option to limit our risk. But in any normal market situation, even if your spread is over-run, we've got ways to adjust out of it to make the trade better.

So the vast majority of the time, you can expect to win using this strategy, but it’s important to understand there is risk in trading—but we’re going to be stacking the odds in your favor as far as we possibly can.

Sounds Good. But is Anyone Actually Doing This Successfully in the Real World?

Yes, lots of people are quietly cash flowing the markets using this strategy with great success. But nobody talks about it because everyone wants to sell you on the idea of making lottery-size profits buying options. But once you figure out what’s really going on, you’ll realize the real money is being made by the lottery ticket sellers.

We’ve been showing people how to sell credit spreads successfully since 2010, and we’ve got a lot of people that are real believers—they tell us with great conviction they wouldn’t trade any other way.

I want to share an email I got from one of our subscribers. I just absolutely love this guy’s attitude—his name is Bob Milota. He's the kind of guy that really gets the strategy. He’s a retired engineer so he understands numbers and probabilities—Bob is a smart guy.

After doing lots of different kinds of trading, he decided that this is all he wants to do now. This is what Bob says: "As promised, here are my trading results for the year. I very nearly had an undefeated season in my high probability credit spread trading this year. Unfortunately, I suffered my first loss for the year a week ago. My record so far for the year is, 13 put ratio spreads, all done for a credit. eight iron condors, two of which consisted of three credit spreads because I closed the winning-est side and rolled in. Plus five single credit spreads, one of which is the above-mentioned loss.

That amounts to 25 wins and one loss, which is a 96% success rate.” He goes on to say, "I made a total of $19,126 making $1,594 per month and averaging a return of 9.5% per month, including all commissions and losses."

That's pretty wonderful for Bob and those like him. I know people that are taking second jobs to make an extra $500 a month—but Bob, with a few mouse clicks, is making far more. Plus he says it’s kind of fun (and I agree). He says it keeps him sharp and it keeps him interested. He's making about $1,600 per month and that amount is constantly increasing, and we've got people that are doing a lot better than that.

So the returns are there and your probability of winning is high—but can we do even better?

Building Up Your Account Quickly and Consistently is a Big Benefit—but Can We Do It Tax Free?

There is a special account where we can trade these credit spreads so that they can build to infinity without having to pay ANY tax on the profits…Ever!

This special account is called a Roth IRA .

This kind of an IRA has some special advantages that make it perfect for trading high-probability credit spreads. Here the characteristics of a Roth:

Contributions are not tax deductible—however… You can contribute up to $5500 per year under age 50, and $6500 over age 50. Direct contributions to a Roth IRA may be withdrawn tax free at any time. Earnings may be withdrawn tax free and penalty free after age 59-½. Distributions from a Roth IRA do not increase your Adjusted Gross Income, so these earnings do not increase your tax bracket on your other income. The Roth IRA does not require distributions based on age. All other tax-deferred retirement plans require withdrawals by 70½. Unlike distributions from a regular IRA, qualified Roth distributions do not affect the calculation of taxable social security benefits. Assets in a Roth IRA can be passed on to heirs. Single filers can make up to $110,000 to qualify for a full contribution and can make $110,000 to$125,000 to be eligible for a partial contribution. Joint filers can make up to $173,000 to qualify for a full contribution and $173,000–$183,000 to be eligible for a partial contribution.

As you probably noted from the list above, the most compelling characteristic of a Roth is that you can build up any amount of wealth in the account you want. And as long the distributions are taken after the age of 59-½, the money you take out is Completely Tax Free.

Combine that huge advantage with a strategy that consistently makes money, and you’ve got a blueprint to create a comfortable retirement no matter where you are starting from now.

So Your Odds of Winning are Excellent—And Now You Have a Way to Build Up Those Profits Tax Free—But How Much Can We Expect to Make?

We typically shoot for 15% to 25% returns for just two weeks of time. But it’s important to realize you want to hold back about a third of your account in cash for buy-backs and adjustments, so you’re not getting those returns on the whole account. Plus, in spite of our best efforts there will be losing trades—that’s how trading works, so we have to factor those in.

Trading this strategy with our probability of winning typically returns about 10% every two weeks. Now if you are a speculative trader, that might not sound like much—but it is when you consider your win ratio. If you are consistently making that kind of money every two weeks, you are going to be very wealthy within just a few years.

But let’s say you’re a little skeptical about those returns. Let’s say that in the real world something always happens, and our theoretical rate of return doesn’t quite materialize.

Let’s say that all you can generate is just 5% per month—not 10% every two weeks, but just 5% per month—that’s about a quarter of what we can mathematically expect even factoring in losses and holding a portion of the account in cash.

If the maximum we can put into a Roth is $6,500 per year—and we faithfully put that in every year—what does your account turn into at “just” 5% per month? Here’s what your account looks like if you invest $6,500 per year and get 5% per month over a five-year period:

As you can see from the chart above, by year two you are making approximately what Bob is making now—but by year five you are making an inspiring $12,965 per month—and the very next month that grows to $13,613 and the income grows even more steeply after that.

And your account itself has grown to over a quarter of a million dollars! At that point, you can start living off some of your profits and still see your account grow. And the inspiring thing is all it took was an investment of $6,500 per year—an amount most people can save or already have.

Which means you aren’t more than five years away from a comfortable retirement—all you need is a little know-how to make it work.

I’ve put together a complete presentation on how to trade this strategy. You’ll see our favorite way to adjust a spread if it is moving against you so you’ll never have to worry about stock reversals. I will also show you more actual examples of how to set up your trades so you really get the concept.

Plus, I’ll introduce you to others that are trading this way, including my cousin Ralph out in Chicago, and a lady that is managing a fund by selling options that is literally making millions of dollars per year. So you can see this concept works no matter how big your account gets.

And I’ll show you the proof—you’ll get a link to interviews with her where you can see for yourself what she doing. And I guarantee that you’ll come away inspired.

I believe so strongly that this strategy can make a beneficial change in your financial outlook that I want you to access this special presentation for free. It’s only about 60 minutes, but it could change your life.

Once you register, I’ll send you our Tuesday night updates so you can see for yourself how these trades work in the real world.

To sign up for the complete webinar, go to this webpage now. You’ll be able to control the presentation with forward and back controls and a pause button so you can take it all in at your own speed—and even take notes if you like.

And once you see this concept, if you have questions you can call our office toll free at 1 877 507-7878, or email us at customerservice@cashflowheaven.

I truly believe that anyone who follows my instructions can make money trading this way—even if you’ve had little success trading in the past. If you watch just five minutes, I suspect you’ll be watching the whole thing—in fact you might even have a little trouble sleeping because the math and probabilities are so compelling—even starting with a fairly small account.

So once again—click this link to watch—and I’ll look forward to showing you a little-known but amazingly effective way to create a level of cashflow that makes it more possible than ever to retire on your own terms.

Author: Peter Schultz, Founder.

Company: Cash Flow Heaven Publishing.

Services Offered: Trading Education, Mentoring, Newsletter Subsription.

Markets Covered: Stocks, Options.

Peter has been showing self-directed investors how to trade successfully since 1996, and is a nationally known speaker on options trading, the author of Passage to Freedom, The Options Success Trading Package, The Winning Secret Trading Package, The Explosive Profits Package and The Greatest Options Strategies on Earth.

High Performing Options Strategy: The Hidden Pivot.

By Rick Ackerman, RickAckerman.

The Hidden pivot strategy is a high-leverage options strategy that I use in conjunction with my daily service, Rick’s Picks. Our edge comes from a price targeting system that is purely technical, combined with the experience that I have amassed in over 30 years of Options trading.

When the price of a stock fluctuates, it is acting to rebalance ceaseless changes in the yin/yang energy of supply and demand. Stocks “inhale” and “exhale” as they fluctuate through time. It therefore follows that if there’s a zig on the charts, there is precisely a corresponding zag somewhere else.

Hidden pivots are at the exact middle and end points of these zigs and zags. Determining the location of Hidden Pivots can tell us with remarkable precision the prices at which a stock is most likely to change direction.

In this short video, I will cover the Hidden Pivot strategy, along with a bonus “Jackpot” strategy that I share with my subscribers on Fridays. Some of the concepts you will learn in this video include:

Trade only weekly options expiring in 10 days or less Initiate trades only when you expect them to be profitable within minutes If options double, take profits on half of your position Ditch the Black-Scholes model and use technical price targets instead The “Jackpot” comércio.

Also, make sure to:

Author: Rick Ackerman, Founder.

Services Offered: Market Forecasting, Chat Room, Education Services.

Markets Covered: Stocks, Options, Commodities and eMini Futures.

Rick’s detailed strategies for stocks, options and indices have appeared since the early 1990s in black Box Forecasts, a newsletter he founded that originally was geared for professional options traders.

There's Never Been A Better Time To Profit From The Hidden Auction Process…

Exactly What Unfinished Auctions Are How To Build A Great Part-Time Or Full-Time Income With No Boss & Have Complete Control Of Your Time Day Trading This Unue Strategy How Unfinished Auctions Help You Find 7-10 High Profit Daily Trade Setups - That your normal Indicators & Analyzers can't see Step-By-Step Guidance On How To Develop Your Own Day Trading Strategy For ANY Futures Market Learn To Trade Unfinished Auctions The Right Way And Gain Confidence -- so you avoid conflicting data from your indicators and analyzers that aren't designed to uncover them 7 Mistakes Unfinished Auction Traders Routinely Make & How To Avoid Them – These mistakes cripple any traders’ ability to earn consistent profits trading Unfinished Auctions. Avoiding them could give you the edge you are looking for And a whole lot more. Free PDF Download Here.

Naked Put Writing: A Strategy for All Hours.

By Lawrence McMillan, McMillanAsset.

The sale of a naked put is often a very attractive strategy that is conservative, can out-perform the market, can have a high-win rate, and can be analyzed and sometimes constructed in non-market hours. In this article, we’re going to look at some of the background on put writing, show a systematic way to select which puts are best to write, and finally explain how you can implement them into your trading arsenal “outside normal hours.”

Option Selling is Conservative.

The basic concept of option writing is a proven investment technue that is generally considered to be conservative. It can be implemented as “covered call writing” or, alternatively, “naked put writing” which is the equivalent strategy to covered call writing.

In either case, one is selling a wasting asset, and over time the cumulative effect of this selling will add return to a portfolio, as well as reducing the volatility of a purely equity portfolio.

People sometimes stay away from uncovered put writing because they hear that it is "too risky" or that it doesn't have a sufficient risk-reward. The truth is that put selling, when secured by cash, is actually less risky than owning stock outright and can out-perform the broad market and the covered-writing index over time.

Covered Writes vs. Naked Put Sales.

First of all, it should be understood that the two strategies – naked put writing and covered call writing – are equivalent. Two strategies are considered equivalent when their profit graphs have the same shape (Figure 1). In this case, both have fixed, limited upside profit potential above the striking price of the written option, and both have downside risk below the striking price of the written option.

One very compelling, yet simple argument in favor of naked put writing is this: commission costs are lower. A covered write entails two commissions (one for the stock, the other for the written call). A naked put requires only one. Furthermore, if the position attains its maximum profitability – as we would hope that it always does – there is another commission to sell the stock when it is called away. There is no such additional commission for the naked put; it merely expires worthless.

Nowadays, commission costs are small in deeply discounted accounts, but not everyone trades with deep discount brokers. Moreover, even there, it doesn’t hurt to save a few dollars here and there.

So, a naked put sale will have a higher expected return than a covered call write, merely because of reduced commission costs.

Another factor in utilizing naked puts is that it is easier to take a (partial) profit if one desires. This would normally happen with the stock well above the striking price and with a few days to a few weeks remaining before expiration. At that time, the put is (deeply) out of the money and will generally be trading actively, with a fairly tight market. In a covered call write, however, the call would be deeply in-the-money. Such calls have wide markets and virtually no trading volume.

Hence, it might be easy to buy back a written put for a nickel or less, to close down a position and eliminate further risk. But at the same time, it would be almost impossible to remove the deeply in-the-money covered call write for 5 or 10 cents over parity.

The same thinking applies to establishing the position, which we normally do with the stock well above the striking price of the written option. In such cases, the call is in the money – often fairly deeply – while the put is out-of the money. Thus the put market is often tighter and more luid and might more easily be “middled” (i. e., traded between the bid and ask). Again, this potentially improves returns.

The above facts regarding naked put writing are generally known to most investors. However, many are writing in IRA or other retirement accounts, or they just feel more comfortable owning stock, and so they have been doing traditional covered call writing – buying stock and selling calls against it.

But it isn’t necessary, and it certainly isn’t efficient, to do so. A cash-based account (retirement account or merely a cash account) can write naked puts, as long as one has enough cash in the account to allow for potential assignment of the written put. Simply stated, one must have cash equal to the striking price times the number of puts sold (times $100, of course). Technically, the put premium can be applied against that requirement.

Most brokerage firms do allow cash-based naked put writing, however some may not. Some firms may require that you obtain “level 2" option approval before doing so, but that is usually a simple matter of filling out some paperwork. If your brokerage does not allow cash-based put-selling, you can always move the account to one that does, like Interactive Brokers.

Once you write a naked put in a cash account, your broker will “set aside” the appropriate amount of cash. You can’t withdraw that cash or use it to buy other securities – even money market funds.

Most put sellers operate in a margin account, however, using some leverage (if they wish). One of the advantages of writing naked puts on margin is that the writer can gain a fair amount of leverage and thus increase returns if he feels comfortable with the risk (as a result, we have long held that naked put writing on margin makes covered call writing on margin obsolete). That is not the case with cash-based naked put writing, though. The returns are more in line with traditional covered call writing.

In summary, put writing is our strategy of choice over covered call writing in most cases – whether cash-based or on margin. Later, when we discuss index put selling, you will see that there are even greater advantages to put writing on margin.

Put-Selling Can Out-Perform the Market.

The Chicago Board Option Exchange (CBOE) has created certain benchmark indices so that investors can compare covered call writing ($BXM), naked put selling ($PUT), and the performance of the S&P 500 Index ($SPX). Figure 3 compares these indices, with all three aligned on June 1, 1988.

It is clear from the Figure 2 that naked put writing ($PUT) is the superior performer of these benchmark indices. For this reason, naked put writing is the preferred option-writing strategy that we employ in our newsletter services.

Since covered call writing is equivalent to naked put selling – and since Figure 2 merely shows dollars of profit, not returns – you might think that the covered call writing graph and the naked put writing graph would be quite similar.

But there is something more to index put writing – especially writing puts on the S&P 500 index ($SPX or SPY, or even e-mini S&P futures): out-of-the-money puts are far more expensive than out-of-the-money calls.

This is called a “volatility skew,” and it has been in effect since the Crash of ‘87. Institutional put buyers want to own $SPX (and related) puts for portfolio protection, and they don’t seems to care if they constantly pay too much for them. Conversely, other large institutions may be selling covered calls as protection, thereby depressing the prices of those calls. Some institutions do both – buy the puts and sell the calls (a collar). Thus the main reason that $PUT outperforms $BXM by so much in Figure 3 is that the out-of-the-money puts being sold are far more expensive (in terms of implied volatility) than are any out-of-the-money calls being sold.

We recommend put ratio spreads and weekly option sales in The Daily Strategist newsletter as a way to take advantage of this. Moreover, we have put together a complete strategy – called Volatility Capture – that we use in our managed accounts.

In the Volatility Capture Strategy, we blend all aspects together to produce a reduced volatility strategy that can make money in all markets (although it will not keep pace on the upside in a roaring bull market). The primary focus of the strategy is selling $SPX puts, but there are two forms of protection in place as well.

McMillan Analysis Corp. is registered as both a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) and as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA), so we are able to offer the strategy to both non-retirement and retirement accounts.

Our complete track record and other pertinent details are available by request. For preliminary information and a summary of our track record, visit our money management web site: mcmillanasset.

For more specific information, email us at the following address: info@optionstrategist., or call us at 800-768-1541.

One of the main arguments against put-selling is that the draw-downs can be large in severe market downturns. One way to mitigate these draw-downs would be to hedge the entire put-sale portfolio. For example, one may attempt to offset the market risk that is inherent to option writing by continually hedging with long positions in dynamic volatility-based call options as we do in our managed accounts.

This is really a topic for another article, but the gist of this protection is to buy out-of-the-money $VIX one-month calls and roll them over monthly. Buying longer-term $VIX calls does not work, for only the front-month contracts come anywhere close to simulating movements in $VIX (and in $SPX).

The Odds Can Be in Your Favor.

As evidenced by the $PUT Index, naked-put writing is a conservative strategy that has the potential to out-perform the broad market over time. When implemented correctly, the strategy can have high rates of success and can also be hedged against large stock market-drawdowns. For example, The Daily Strategist and Option Strategist Newsletters have produced a combined 89.4% and 85.6% winners in their index and equity naked put-selling/covered-writing trades since the newsletter started recommending them in May of 2007 and April of 2004 respectively. Investors looking for put-selling trading ideas and recommendations on a daily or weekly basis may be interested in subscribing to one of those services.

Trading Outside Normal Hours.

Naked put-selling is an especially attractive strategy for do-it-yourself investors who do not have time in their day to watch the markets since positions do not need to be monitored closely all day. Put-writers can sit easy so long as the underlying stock remains above the strike price of the option sold. If the stock is above the strike price at expiration, the option simply expires. The option-seller then realizes the initial credit and no closing action needs to be taken. If the position needs to be exited early, usually due to the fact that the stock has dropped below the strike price of the short option, the position can be closed out automatically via a contingent stop loss order.

You cannot trade options outside of standard stock market hours; however depending on your brokerage, you may be able to place your opening limit order outside the stock market hours. In this case, you order would simply be placed in a queue for processing once the market opened. If your broker doesn’t allow you to place an order outside market hours, you would only need a couple of minutes during the day to either call your broker or hop on your trading software to place your trade.

Another big benefit to naked put-selling is that it doesn’t take much analysis to find good potential trading candidates. In fact, as we do for our newsletters, all of the initial analysis can be done at night with computer scans and a little bit of discretion. The following section will discuss our approach to finding naked put-sale candidates for our newsletters each night.

Choosing What Put To Sell.

For the most part, we choose our put-selling positions for our various publications based on data that is available on The Strategy Zone – a subscriber area of our web site consisting of various data scans and lists of potential trades compiled by our computer analysis. One could do the same sort of analysis yourself, as a subscriber to “the Zone.” On top of that, our Option Workbench provides additional analytical capability for that data.

Our computers do a lot of option theoretical analysis each night – from computer Greeks to analyzing which straddles to buy to graphs of put-call ratios. The Zone was started about 10 years ago, when I decided to make the outputs of our nightly programs available to anyone who was interested in paying a modest amount of money to view them. These analyses are still the basis for almost all of our recommendations.

Expected return is the crux of most of these analyses. For those of you not familiar with the concept, I will briefly explain it here.

Expected return is a logical way of analyzing diverse strategies, breaking them down to a single useful number. Expected return encompasses the volatility of the underlying instrument as a major factor. However, it is only a theoretical number and is not really a projection of how this individual trade will do. Rather, expected return is the return one could expect to make on a particular trade over a large number of trials.

For example, consider a fair die (i. e., one that is not “loaded”). There is an equal, one-sixth chance that any number will come up on a particular roll of the die. But does that mean if I roll the die six times, I will get one once, two once, three once, etc.? No, of course not. But if I roll the fair die 6 million times; I will likely have rolled very nearly 1 million ones, 1 million twos, etc.

We are applying this same sort of theory to position analysis in the option market.

For naked put selling, the first thing I look at is the file of the highest potential returns. These are determined strictly mathematically, using expected return analysis. This list is going to necessarily have a lot of “dangerous” stocks listed as the best covered writes. Typically, these would be biotech stocks or other event-driven small-cap stocks.

Next, I reduce the size of the list. I have a program that screens out a subset of these, limiting the list to stocks in the S&P 500 Index only. Individual investors might have other ways of screening the list.

If returns at the top of the list are “too good to be true,” then one can assume that either 1) there is a volatile event on the horizon (meaning the lognormal distribution assumption is wrong), or 2) the volatility assumption used in the expected return analysis is wrong. Throw out any such items. These would likely have annualized expected returns in excess of 100% – an unrealistic number for a naked put write. However, weekly put sales might sometimes be in that range. Those would have to be looked at separately. In general, if the underlying stock is going to report earnings during the week in question, the put sale should probably be avoided.

At this point, I select all the writes with annualized expected returns higher than 24% (my minimum return for writing puts on margin), and re-rank them by probability of profit. Once that is done, I select those with a probability of profit of 90% or higher, and re-rank them by annualized expected return. In other words, I am still interested in high returns, but I want ones with plenty of downside protection. This screening process knocks out most of the list, usually as much as 90% of the initial put writing candidates.

From there the analysis calls for some research, for at this point it is necessary to look at the individual stocks and options to see if there is something unusual or especially risky taking place. Some stocks seem to be on the list perennially – Sears (SHLD), for example, perennially has expensive options due to its penchant for drastic moves.

Another useful piece of information is the Percentile of Implied Volatility. That is listed in the data, and if it is low (below the 50th percentile), then I will likely not write that particular put. Recall that expected return needs a volatility estimate – and for these naked put writes we use the current composite implied volatility. However, if there is the possibility that volatility could increase a lot (i. e., if the current composite implied volatility is in a fairly low percentile), then there is a danger that actual stock movements could be much more volatile than we have projected. Hence that is not a naked put that I would want to write.

I also look at the absolute price of the option. I realize that is taken into account in the expected return analysis, but I personally do not like writing naked options selling for only 20 cents or so, unless it’s on a very low-priced stock.

The expiration date of the option is important to me as well. I would prefer to write one - or two-month options, because there is less time for something to go wrong. Occasionally, if there is a special situation that I feel is overblown on the downside I will look into writing longer-term options, but that is fairly rare.

These further restrictions reduce the number of writing candidates down to a fairly manageable level. At this point, it is necessary to look at the individual charts of the stocks themselves. It’s not that I am trying to predict the stock price; I really don’t care what it does as long as it doesn’t plunge.

Consequently, I would not be interested in writing a put on a stock, if that stock is in a steep downtrend. More likely, the chart can show where any previous declines have bottomed. I would prefer to see a support level on the chart, at a price higher than the striking price that I am considering writing. This last criterion knocks out a lot of the remaining candidates.

Some may say that the stock chart is irrelevant, if the statistical and other criteria are met. That’s probably true, but if I have my choice of one that has chart support above the strike and one that doesn’t, I am going with the one that does every time.

The potential put selling candidates that remain at this point are generally few, and are the best writing candidates. But I will always check the news regarding any potential write, just to see if there is something that I should know. By “news,” I mean earnings dates, any potential FDA hearing dates, ongoing lawsuits, etc. You can easily get a lot of this information by looking up the company on Yahoo Finance or other free financial news sites.

The reason that this news check is necessary is that these puts are statistically expensive for some reason. I’d like to know what that reason is, if possible. The previous screens will probably have weeded out any FDA hearing candidates, for their puts are so dramatically expensive that they would have alarm-raising, overly high expected returns.

But what about earnings? Studies show that the options on most stocks increase in implied volatility right before the earnings. In general this increase is modest – a 10% rise in implieds, or so. But sometimes the rise is much more dramatic. Those more dramatic situations often show up on volatility skew lists and are used as dual calendar spreads in earnings-driven strategies. But as far as naked put writing goes, if the expected return on the put is extraordinary, then that is a warning flag.

If a position meets all of these criteria, we officially consider it acceptable to establish and may recommend it in a newsletter.

I realize that many put sellers (or covered call writers) use a different method: they pick a stock they “like” first, and then try to find an option to write. By this “fundamental” approach, one is probably writing an option that has a very low expected return – a la the calls on almost every “dividend stock” in the current market. They compensate for this by writing the call out of the money, so that they will have some profit if the stock rises and gets called away.

To me, that is completely the wrong way to go about it. If you like the stock, why not buy it and buy a put, so you have upside profit potential? What is the obsession with writing a covered call?

Rather than that “fundamental” or “gut” approach, the use of expected return as a guide to the position makes this a “total return” proposition – where we are not overly concerned with (upward) stock movement, but rather more concerned with the combination of option premium, stock volatility, rate of return, and probability of winning. To me, that is the correct approach.

Do-It-Yourself with Option Workbench.

Those looking to analyze potential naked put-writes themselves, can do so with easewith our Option WorkBench (OWB) software. This is the overlay service to our Strategy Zone, and it provides the ability to sort the reports in various ways. More importantly, it allows one to construct his own analysis formulae. For information on the various features and capabilities of OWB, watch the following video:

Selecting Naked Put Writes From OWB.

Option workbench makes finding actionable naked put-sale trades that fit all of the criteria in my aforementioned approach quite easy. Once you are logged into the software, one would first access the “broad” scan of potential candidates by hovering over “Spread Profiles” and clicking on Naked Puts.

A list of all the naked put writes that have annualized expected returns of greater than 4% will be shown (that 4% threshold would move higher if T-Bills ever yield anything besides 0%!).

Using the closing data from June 17, 2015, there were 14,449 such put writes! Obviously, one has to cut that list down to a more workable size.

There are a lot of 32 column headings here, and most are statistical in nature. To me, the two most important pieces of data are 1) annualized expected return, and 2) downside protection (in terms of probability – not percent of stock price). Both of these are volatility-related, and that is what is important in choosing put writes. You want to ensure that you are being compensated adequately for the volatility of the stock.

If you click on “A ExpRtn” (which is Annualized Expected Return), the list quickly sorts by that data. However, in my opinion, it is not a good idea to just sell the put with the highest expected return. The computer calculations make certain assumptions that might not reflect the real world. For example, if there is a large possibility that the stock might gap downwards (an upcoming earnings report, for example), the puts will appear to be overly expensive. Any sort of upcoming news that might cause the stock to gap will raise the price of the puts. You probably don’t want to write such puts, even though the computer may “think” they are the best writes to establish.

In order to overcome these frailties, one would use the “Filter Editor” function of OWB. You can construct a filter to include or exclude writes the do/don’t meet your individual criteria.

If you click on the button (above the data) that says “Profile Filter Editor,” a box will appear. Figure 3 shows the box as it appears in my version of OWB. On the left are three filter names: DTOS Noearnings, DTOS w/ earnings, and TOS No Earnings (mine). In the center of Figure 3, the actual formulae for the filter “TOS No Earnings" are shown.

To apply the formulae, merely click the “Apply” button (lower right of Figure 3). In this case, the list of 14,449 potential naked put writes shrinks to 64 candidates!

Here are the formulae that appear in Figure 3:

InList (‘S&P 500'): include only stocks that are in the $SPX Index. This way, we are not dealing with extremely small stocks that can easily gap by huge amounts on corporate news.

Days>2, days <= 90: include only writes whose expiration date is between 2 and 89 days hence.

Aexprtn>= 24%: only include writes whose annualized expected return is at least 24%

PrDBE>= 90%: only consider stocks that have less than a 10% chance of being below the downside breakeven (DBE) point at expiration.

PutPrice>= 0.25: only consider puts that are selling for at least 0.25.

expdate < nextearnings: only consider put sales on stocks that are not going to report earnings while the put sale is in place. Stocks are far too volatile on earnings announcements, and this will avoid the main cause of downside gaps: poor earnings.

These criteria produce a strong list of put writing candidates. There will be no earnings announcements to cause downside gaps. There is a 90% chance of making money. Over time, writes such as these should produce returns in line with the expected returns – greater than 24%, using this formula.

You can add many other filters (or delete some of these if you wish). It is easy to do within OWB, and I encourage you to experiment with it.

Once the list has been filtered, there is still work to do. Why are these remaining puts so expensive? One might have to look at the news for certain stocks to see why. At the current time, health care stocks have very expensive options: ET, HUM, THC, for example. Not only are these inflated because of takeover rumors, there is also supposedly some Medicare-related pricing edicts coming soon from the U. S. Government. Those things could cause downside volatility; however one may feel there is enough downside protection to warrant selling the puts. If that were the case, you would have found your trade!

After you have found your trade the next step would be to determine how many puts to sell. Generally, for a margin account, most brokerages have a margin requirement of 25% of the strike-priceof the short put you are selling less the premium received for the sale of the put less the out-of-the-money amount, subject to a 10% minimum. We generally write out-of-the-money puts and set aside enough margin so that the stock has room to fall to the striking price – the level where we generally would be closing the position out. This conservative approach decreases the risk of a margin call if the stock moves against your position.

For example, if you sell a naked put with a strike price of 50 for a credit of 1.00, the margin we would set aside would be $1,150. The formula below illustrates this:

Strike Price (50) x 25% (0.25) x Shares per Option (100) – Premium Received (100) = Margin Requirement ($1,150)

For cash accounts, one would have to set aside 100% of the strike price less the put premium. So, for the prior example, the cash collateral would be $4,900 (50 x 100 – 100).

We generally suggest that one puts no more than 5% of their total portfolio value in any particular put-sale for margin accounts, and 10% for cash accounts.

If you had a $100,000 margin account, you would want to allocate no more than $5,000 to any particular put sale. Using the prior example, you would then sell 4 naked puts ($5,000 / $1,150 = 4.35). Cash based accounts would sell 2 contracts (($100,000 x 0.10) / $4,900 = 2.04).

The next step would be determine your stop. Generally, we like to set our stops at the downside break-even level at expiration. This level can easily be calculated with the following formula:

Preço de Exercício & ndash; Put Premium = Downside Break-Even Level.

However, if you cannot watch your position throughout the day, it may make sense to set your intraday stop at the strike price. This means that if the stock trades below the strike price you are short, the position would be automatically closed. That way, there would be no risk of assignment if the stock were below your strike at expiration.

Now that you have determined your quantity and stop, the final steps would be to enter your order (before the open with your brokerage’s order queue if possible), set your stop (via a contingent stop order if your brokerage allows) and monitor. Those who cannot generally participate during normal market hours and whose brokerages don’t allow order queuing and contingent stops, would only need a few minutes to initially place the trade. Furthermore, they would only have to monitor the trade near the market close each day to see if the stock is below their stop. If it were, one would simply buy back the put to close the position.

Find naked put-sale candidates on your own with a free 30-day trial to Option Workbench. Feel free to use my filter or create one of your own!

Scroll to the bottom and select the one month subscription ($135) and enter the Coupon Code FREEOWB at checkout. No credit card is required. Subscription will not automatically renew upon completion.

Author: Lawrence McMillan, Founder.

Company: McMillan Asset Management.

Services Offered: Trading Education, Account Management Services.

Markets Covered: Stocks, Options.

Lawrence is well-known as the author of “Options As a Strategic Investment”, the best-selling work on stock and index options strategies. The book – initially published in 1980 – is currently in its fifth edition and is a staple on the desks of many professional option traders.

The Triple Confirmation System.

By Andrew Keene, AlphaShark.

When I talk about trading, I’m talking about math, probabilities and putting the odds of success in my favor. If I flip a coin, 100 percent of the time, my odds of success will be 50/50.

But what happens if you flip a coin 100 times, and it lands up tails 70 times out of 100? What are the odds of the next flip landing up tails? The odds are still 50/50. That’s why it is possible to make money in the short term in Las Vegas, but in the long-term, the casinos always win.

When I’m trading, I want high probability setups, supported by math to keep the odds in my favor. For example, if the candlesticks on a chart are making higher highs and higher lows, what are the odds that the market will continue to move higher? I need to know this to stay on the side of a trend, and the best indicator to help me see that at a glance is the Ichimoku Cloud.

In this video, I will show you how to scan for the best trending stocks, using my proprietary Ichimoku Cloud Triple Confirmation Indicator.

This package includes bonus scans and recorded sessions.

Author: Andrew Keene, Founder & CEO.

Company: Alpha Shark Trading.

Services Offered: Trading Room, Market Scanners, Trading Education.

Markets Covered: Stocks, Options, Futures, Currency pairs.

Andrew’s first love will always be trading, but he is better known for building a trading room. He has taught his personal strategies to over 50,000 students over the past four years.

The Fast Ball Expansion of Range and Volume (XRV) Setup.

By Dr. Adrian Manz, TraderInsight.

Big market moves spell big opportunity for traders. The best trading setups that I have found over the past twenty years come when the expansion-of-range-and-volume (XRV) pattern that I call Fast Ball propels a stock rapidly higher or lower. Fast Ball XRV moves occur when institutions have directed their traders to buy or luidate large equity positions. The stock in trade overwhelms supply or demand, pushing price in a rapid directional move higher (in the case of buying), or lower (in the case of selling). The resulting chart pattern is easy to spot and provides traders the opportunity to capitalize on institutional activity, which tends to continue over the course of several trading sessions.

Identifying Fast Ball Expansion-of-Range-and-Volume (XRV) Setups.

The ability to zero in on institutional activity has made the Fast Ball XRV the cornerstone of my trading business for 20 years. It is easy to find on daily price charts and intraday price support and resistance zones make risk control very intuitive. Stop losses are placed outside of clearly-identifiable setup-day 5-minute intraday support or resistance. The targets are also easy to spot, and are most frequently placed at daily resistance (for long trades), or support (for shorts). There are two types of Fast Ball XRV chart pattern and the Type 1 setup is discussed first.

Fast Ball XRV Pattern Type One.

The first Fast Ball XRV chart pattern occurs when a trending move pulls back, then breaks out in the direction of the trend.

The rules for a long entry are as follows:

A stock is trending higher and pulls back. A breakout of the pullback occurs on the widest range of the past ten sessions, preferably on heavy volume. The buy entry is the following session, $0.10 above the XRV bar in the direction of the breakout. Close out at the end of day, or at the overhead daily resistance target, or on a trigger of a protective stop.

The rules for a short sale are as follows:

A stock that is trending lower pulls back. A breakout of the pullback occurs on the widest range of the past ten sessions, preferably on heavy volume. The short-sale entry is the following session, $0.10 below the XRV bar in the direction of the breakout. Close out at the end of day, or at the underlying daily support target, or on a trigger of a protective stop.

An example of a short-sale setup is provided in a recent move in Welltower Inc (HCN), in Figure 1.

Based on the price movement in Figure 1, the parameters of the trading plan for HCN for July 7, 2017 were as follows:

A pullback and breakout occurred on the widest range of the past ten sessions, on heavy volume. The short sale is 0.10 below the low of the XRV bar (short at $792) The stop loss price is 0.05 above 5-minute intraday overhead resistance (stop out at $724). The profit target is at the daily support inflection (buy-to-cover at $72.41) Once the trade is initiated, money-management rules take over, and the position practically manages itself.

There are three hurdles that HCN must achieve to exit without a loss. The first is that HCN must trade lower to within 50% of the distance from the entry to the profit target. At that point, the stop loss is moved to breakeven. The second is that HCN must trade to within 0.10 of the profit target. At this point, the stop is moved down to the 50% to target level. The final hurdle is the profit target. When HCN hits the target, all shares may be closed, or a portion may be closed, with a trailing stop placed on the balance to protect the open profit. For accounting purposes, we record all shares as being closed at the target when it is reached. We will exit the trade immediately if the stop loss is hit.

As represented in Figure 2, the intraday trade in HCN hit the 50%-to-target level within minutes of the trade being initiated, moving the stop to breakeven. When 0.10-to target was achieved, the stop was moved to $72.67, which is 50% of the move to the profit target. This locked in a profit and created a risk-free position. When the target was hit at $72.41, the position was closed. The profit was 0.51 per share traded.

The second Fast Ball XRV chart pattern is also easy to spot, and occurs when a trending move pauses and forms a consolidation range. This time, we are looking for a trend or counter-trend breakout of the consolidation range.

The rules for a type 2 long entry are as follows:

A stock that is trending higher consolidates for several days. A breakout of the consolidation occurs on the widest range of the previous ten sessions, preferably on heavy volume. The buy entry is the following session, $0.10 above the extreme of the XRV bar in the direction of the breakout. Close out at the end of day, or at the overhead daily resistance target, or on a trigger of a protective stop.

The rules for a short sale are as follows:

A stock that is trending lower consolidates for several days. A breakout of the trend pullback occurs on the widest range of the previous ten sessions, preferably on heavy volume. The short-sale entry is the following session, $0.10 below the extreme of the XRV bar in the direction of the breakout. Close out at the end of day or at the underlying daily support, or on a trigger of a protective stop.

Figure 3 provides an example. The components for a potential long entry in VF Corp (VFC) were in place. The parameters for the upcoming session were:

The entry is 0.10 above the high of the Fast Ball XRV bar (buy at $55.46) The stop loss is 0.05 below 5-minute intraday support from the trading that occurred in the Fast Ball XRV setup day (stop out for a loss at $55.06) The profit target is at the inflection at daily resistance (sell for a profit at $56.25)

Figure 4 shows the intraday 5-minute chart and the progression of the VFC trade once it triggered. Note that Fast Ball XRV trades are frequently accompanied by rapid intraday moves, as buying or selling pressure reassert during trading. This is particularly true during the first few minutes of the session and is caused by the flood of directionally biased orders that were staged prior to the market open. These orders can result in extreme volatility because they are frequently placed as market-on-open orders. They exhaust luidity and push price rapidly in the direction of the Fat Ball XRV daily momentum. Once these orders have been filled, price frequently reverts toward the prior session’s close to provide both shorter and longer time frame opportunities for profit.

Held to the strictest interpretation of these guidelines the Fast Ball XRV has generated significant results in a $100,000 non-compounded trading account each year since 2006. Trading a fixed lot size of 1,000 shares, the Fast Ball XRV generated an average annual return of $20,390 or 20.39 per cent. Accounting for the fact that a $100,000 account could generally leverage more than 1,000 shares per trade, this return could easily be increased substantially by assuming additional risk on each position.

The most significant characteristic of the Fast Ball XRV is the stability of the pattern over time, and the fact that it tends to outperform on the short side of the market. Short sales produce more profitability even when the broader markets are making large positive swing moves as they did in 2013, 2014, 2016 and 2017. These returns are not curve fit or back tested, but rather are the results for the Fast Ball XRV triggers as they were planned and published in my trading plan at traderinsight since 2006. Each trade is rule-based and handled by strict money management criteria to maximize replicability. A copy of the rules and every Fast Ball XRV setup since 2006 is available at TraderInsight.

Layering in Multiple Entry Points to Increase Profit Potential.

The textbook version of the Fast Ball XRV generates great results. But there is always room for additional opportunity and in recent years I have used alternate entry levels based on multiple-session support, resistance, Fibonacci retracements, and floor trader pivots to generate additional opportunities for profit. Figure 5 shows a trading plan in Southwest Airlines (LUV) that never triggered by its original trading parameters, but booked a profit on the session with alternate entry parameters.

As you can see in figure 6, the support and resistance alternate-entry data presented in my trading plan in Figure 5 show an inflection confluence entry at 62.31. When this entry triggered, the initial target at prior-session-support (61.92) created a profit of 0.39 per share traded in LUV.

The secondary trades are simple support and resistance alternate entries. Their ability to generate significant profits has, however, been substantial. Students of my work become believers when they take the time to refine their plans and develop multiple entry levels for the Fast Ball XRV.

Putting the Pieces Together.

The Fast Ball XRV is one of my favorite trading setups. It has served up trading opportunities in all types of markets over the past 20 years, and the options for alternate entries are plentiful because of the range and volatility on the setup day. Though I scan over 1,400 stocks by hand each night to identify the XRV and my other patterns, several scanners are available and have been customized so my students can identify and narrow the next day’s possibilities with ease. These students are then trained how to setup the XRV trades, allowing them the autonomy and self-direction they seek in their trading.

Readers who are interested in learning more about the strategy can watch a one-hour seminar I presented recently.

Author: Adrian Manz, Founder & Lead Day Trader.

Services Offered: Trading Rooms, Trading Courses, Special Events.

Markets Covered: Stocks, Options, Futures.

Dr. Adrian Manz is one of the most sought-after market educators, and is a popular speaker at international conferences, in the print media, and on radio and television.

Diagonal Spreads: A Lucrative Variant to Writing Covered Calls.

By A. J. Brown, TradingTrainer.

In my observations over the last 15 years of being a trainer of stock and option traders, I have found many folks, both novice and experienced, who write covered calls but do not truly understand them. It's no wonder when I introduce a variant, like the diagonal spread, that eyes gloss over as the theory and practical I explain, falls on deaf ears. Often at the end of a conversation I'll hear, "that's something I'm going to have to grow into," or "the math in that is over my head right now."

In my 6% Protocol program, we embrace diagonal spreads as a lucrative variant of writing covered calls.

The goal here is to not only clarify covered call theory and practical, but to also explain a variant, diagonal spreads, in a way that can be consumed.

When a trader writes a covered call, usually they are looking to sell theta decay, a component of premium. They often will not consciously understand that, but when quizzed, that is generally their objective. Selling premium can mean many things, but in this writing we mean selling extrinsic value. Extrinsic value is the component of an option price most influenced by time passing by, the underlying symbol price changes, and the buying and selling pressures of the option itself. Intrinsic value, the other component of an option price, is that actual value of the option at expiration; the real tangible value. The intrinsic value is only a function of the underlying symbol price and the option type (call or put). The intrinsic value of an at-the-money or out-of-the-money option is zero.

Here is a graph of the intrinsic value of an option with a $50 strike price call versus its underlying symbol price. Notice that it is irrelevant when this call option expires because the intrinsic value is only a function of underlying symbol price. That means a call option with the same strike price as a second, both against the same symbol, but with different expiration dates, will have the same intrinsic value; any variation in option price is due to the difference in extrinsic value. Let that sit for a moment.

Here is a graph of option price of a typical call option with a $50 strike price versus its underlying symbol price. In this graph, you will see the intrinsic value plotted for reference. The area difference between the option price and the intrinsic value, is the extrinsic value.

Here is a graph of the extrinsic value, from the prior graph, separated out, versus its underlying symbol price. Notice it is greatest when the option is at-the-money and tapers off equally on either side. Remember, the extrinsic value is little influenced by the option type (call or put). That means extrinsic value of a call option with the same strike price, expiration date, and against the same underlying symbol as a put option, will be similar. Let that sit for a moment.

The conventional intention with covered call writing is to sell the extrinsic value, the premium, for as high a price as possible, and then to have it decay with time passing by. Here are graphs that show what happens to the option price and extrinsic value as time passes by.

Near term premium is what is most often sold. Here is a graph showing how the value of premium is not linear with time. An option will lose much less value over a day passing, when it is 60 days from expiring than when it is five days. The risk with covered call writing is that the underlying symbol will appreciate, causing the buyer of the option to exercise it, or worse, depreciate, leaving the seller with a premium against a devalued underlying symbol. Selling near term premium optimizes the highest selling price with the least amount of time to wait for that price to decay. Our intention is to buy our call option back at a much lower price or let it expire worthless.

Successful covered call writers know to look for underlying symbols that trade sideways in clear horizontal channels. Researching the underlying symbols is paramount. I often describe to my students that an intimacy needs to be formed with the underlying symbol such that you have confidence in its reaction to stimulus. The intention is to sell multiple cycles of premium against the underlying symbol. One reason is the amount of research and familiarity that goes into picking an underlying symbol is long and arduous. It is not something a trader wants to spend their time doing often. Once you find an underlying symbol to write premium against, you would like to stick with it for a while. Another reason is simply the calculation of return on invested capital.

Every cycle you sell premium against an underlying, and it expires worthless, lowers your investment. The profit of the previous cycle is subtracted from your investment. The profit of the current cycle over the lowered investment, exponentially increases your return on invested capital. Each subsequent cycle, you have profit on a lowered investment. It is not linear. Let that sit for a moment.

I sell monthly premium. There's ample luidity in the monthly options. On average, I am in a covered call for four to five months, four to five cycles. My record is 14 months, 14 cycles. On that trade, my initial investment was reduced to zero.

Successful covered call writers look to sell premium at strike prices that are just out-of-the-money from resistance of their underlying symbol's horizontal channel, to have the least probability of being exercised. They will pay close attention to whether their underlying symbol issues dividends. Many buyers of options will factor in dividends and will often exercise an out-of-the-money call option if the expected dividend makes the economics work for them. Remember, when you sell an American call option, you have the obligation to deliver the underlying symbol whenever the buyer of the option decides to give you strike price value.

Our investment price, also referred to as cost basis or, even more descriptive, break-even price, is the difference of our initial investment in the underlying symbol and the premiums we collect over time. Our profit zone is therefore between our cost basis and our sold call option's strike price.

Successful covered call writers look to get their cost basis below the support of their underlying symbol's horizontal channel to have the least probability of the trade going against them.

In a buy-write, where you simultaneously purchase an underlying symbol and sell a call option, it is almost impossible to get both the call strike price selected above the underlying symbol's channel resistance and the cost basis of the trade below underlying symbol's channel support. I teach to use a buy-write paper trade as a scenario analysis method for managing risk and position sizing. I teach to select a day where the underlying symbol's closing price is mid channel, roughly between support and resistance. We use the end-of-day prices on this target, verified horizontally channeling underlying symbol, and its respective option chain, to run through the buy-write paper trade scenario analysis.

The difference between the underlying symbol price and the call option price that has its strike just outside of resistance is our costs basis, our break-even price.

We calculate max profit by subtracting our cost basis from the call option's strike price.

More importantly, we calculate max risk by subtracting our bail-out price from our cost basis. Our bail-out price is selected below the underlying symbol's channel support. It's the price where, if the underlying symbol drops to, it will be so out of the ordinary, that we know it is time to bail-out of the trade. Successful traders use a combination of stop loss orders and protective put strategies on the underlying symbol along with contingent buy-to-close orders on the sold call, to unwind a trade should a bail-out be needed.

From the max risk, we can look at the max tolerated risk to our portfolio for any one trade gone sour, and calculate position size.

From our buy-write scenario analysis using the mid-channel, end-of-day prices, we get our position sizing, as well as, our target underlying symbol buy price, target call sell price, the analysis profit zone (the zone between the cost basis and the strike price), and the analysis trade zone (the zone between the bail-out price and the strike price).

Although we haven't mentioned it yet, it is imperative to factor broker's commission fees into our scenario analysis. A commission can make the difference in economics for a trade that squeaks by with profit, to a trade that loses.

Successful traders armed with position size and the target prices from their scenario analysis, first, patiently wait for the underlying symbol to test its channel support to buy at a lower price than the target underlying buy price, and second, patiently wait for the underlying symbol to test its channel resistance, and sell the call at a higher price than the target call sell price. The underlying symbol can be purchased at any time. Underlying symbols are not affected by time passing by. Compromises on when the call is sold are made as the expiration date approaches, however, successful traders never settle for less than their scenario analysis target price.

Successful traders leg into covered calls. By focusing and beating their target prices in a two-step process, maintaining the position size, the cost basis is lower than initially calculated, increasing max profit and reducing max risk. Often, the cost basis can be lower than the bail-out price creating a profit zone that is the same as the trade zone. This is the optimal situation.

The Diagonal Spread Variant.

A way to increase the return on invested capital potential of a trade is to reduce the initial investment. Recall that an option price is the sum of its intrinsic and extrinsic value. Recall that the extrinsic value is greatest when the option is at-the-money and then tapers to zero on either side. To create an underlying symbol replacement, we can use deep in-the-money call options. The ideal would be to have call options trading at parity. A call option trading at parity has zero extrinsic value, and therefore trades dollar-for-dollar with its underlying symbol. In a hypothetical example, if an underlying symbol increases from $100 to $102, an ideal deep in-the-money call option, trading at parity, would increase from $30 to $32.

Recall that it is probable that this trade could last four to five cycles and, in the extreme case, may last 14 cycles or more. We use far out-in-time options for this reason. The ideal would be to have a call option expiring at a date later than 14 cycles. If available, we purchase LEAPS a couple of years out.

Our ideal underlying symbol replacement is a call option far out-in-time, deep in-the-money. Luidity is a factor. We want some open interest should we need to bail-out.

A good test for if you are deep in the money is to calculate how much extrinsic value there is.

If the extrinsic value is not zero, we calculate what its percentage is of the option price.

We look for the percentage of extrinsic value to be 5% or less.

In our scenario analysis, there are modifications necessary.

Max profit is no longer at the strike of the sold call option. Recall, when you sell a call option, you have the obligation to give the buyer of it, the underlying symbol, if they give you the strike price, at any time before or at expiration. When you purchase a far out-in-time, deep in-the-money call option as an underlying replacement, you do not own the underlying. (You cannot lay claim to dividends; something to factor in.) But, as the buyer of that far out-in-time, deep in-the-money call option, you have the right to hand over the strike price at any time before or at expiration, and receive the underlying symbol in return. In other words, our max profit is the difference between the strike prices of the two call options in our diagonal spread. If we get called out of our sold call, our brokers will handle the exercising of our bought call. For us, we simply need to know that our max profit is now at the difference between the front month and back month strikes.

Max risk in no longer at the bail out price of the underlying symbol. Because we are using a call option close to parity as our underlying symbol replacement, the difference between the underlying symbol price and our bail-out price can be the same difference between our stock replacement price and our stock replacement bail out price.

From there, all other calculations in our scenario analysis are the same. The trade execution is the same. We are simply using an underlying symbol replacement. This creates a diagonal debit spread. This trade can be done in a cash account. It does not require margin.

Many folks are overwhelmed by the thought of a diagonal spread. They get hung up on using two call options with different strike prices and different expiration dates. When we realize strategically selecting call options changes their behavior dramatically, we become more comfortable. A back-month, far out-in-time, deep in-the-money call option responds to underlying symbol movement. It is an underlying symbol replacement. A front-month, near-term, at-the-money call option responds to time passing by. It is the premium we are selling. The broker will handle the unwinding if we get called out. We can use the same combinations of stop losses, contingent sell orders, protective put options and contingent buy-to-close orders for the front-month call, to protect our downside. It's a viable and lucrative alternative.

As part of our 6% Protocol program we regularly leg into diagonal debit spreads. One example started with purchasing four contracts of KSS Jan19 25 Calls on May 19, 2017 for $12.90, when the underlying symbol was trading at $37.40, just off channel support. Kohl's has been a great example of a sideways moving symbol. Notice we used 2019 leaps; far out-in-time. Notice we used $25 strike price; deep in-the-money. The extrinsic value was 50 cents or 3.9% of the leaps price.

We sold four contracts of KSS Jun 40 Calls on June 2, 2017 for 70 cents, when Kohl's was trading at $39.90, just off channel resistance. That reduced our cost basis from $12.90 to $12.20. On June 16, 2017, Kohl's closed at $37.38. Our option expired worthless. We sold four contracts of KSS Jul 40 Calls on July 5, 2017 for $1.25, again, when Kohl's was trading at $39.90, just off channel resistance. That reduced our cost basis from $12.20 to $10.95. On July 21, 2017, Kohl's closed at $40.46. We were called out at $40. Our broker automatically exercised our LEAPS at $25. We kept the $15 spread. In just over two months, we walked away with a return on invested capital of 36.8% after commissions.

Diagonal debit spreads constructed as covered call variants, where the back-month call options are far out-in-time, deep in-the-money underlying symbol replacements, are viable and lucrative alternatives. Diagonal debit spreads are fundamental to what we teach in our 6% Protocol program. They are premium selling option strategies that require little effort to transact and manage. And, after this writing, they should require little additional comprehension. They should be at the top of all our tool boxes. Sign up here for instant access to our 6% Protocol detailed video series and live weekly workshops and trainings. No wait. Sem problemas. Watch all the videos immediately at once.

Scenario testing is a key piece of our ‘Six Percent Protocol’ programa. It is built in. Sign up here for instant access to our detailed video series. No wait. Sem problemas. Watch all the videos at once.

Services Offered: Trading Education, Nightly Newsletter, Daily picks.

Markets Covered: Stocks, Options.

A. J. Brown is the creator of Trading Trainer and he has been trading options for more than 10 years.

Trading the Open of the U. S. Equities Market.

By Melissa Armo, TheStockSwoosh.

A random walk. That is what most people think the stock market is. Just a series of random events with no predictable pattern or link. Just total randomness.

Well, the fact is that most people are right. Most of the time during the trading day the market is random and has no predictable pattern.

This is why so many lose. I have traded the market for years, but realized long ago that MOST of the time the market is random, and people try to make too much out of insignificant patterns that give little odds of success. However, success comes from those few times where there is NOT randomness, when there IS a predictable pattern. When you find these times, it is when you have an edge.

To me, there are two primary times when you have this – two times when you have an edge, when equities give reliable patterns. One of those times comes from what we call ‘shock value’. Shock value can happen first thing in the morning in the U. S. equities market.

Because the stock market closes at 4:00pm EST and opens at 9:30am EST, there is a period where trades cannot take place. Yet events still occur. News still happens, stocks are still upgraded and downgraded, companies are still sued, and companies release earnings. As a matter of fact, companies intentionally release earnings when the market is closed. 99% of earnings are released during non-market hours. Any one of these events can cause tremendous demand to buy or sell a stock, yet it cannot be done. The market is closed.

Yes, there is post - and pre-market trading. But even if you include that, there is still a long period of time when there is no trading. And the post - and pre-market trading is not always reliable. It is generally light volume, and some participants are not able or willing to participate. Either way, the tremendous pent-up demand causes a void in the price chart. This means at open, traders and investors can be instantly rewarded, or punished. This creates four groups of traders/investors. There are those that have to buy, those that have to sell, those that want to buy, and those that want to sell.

This can lead to big swings in these equities at or near the open. Let’s be clear about something. We’re not talking about predicting the actual gap. In all my years, I have to tell you, it is not possible to predict the actual gap. That is nothing more than gambling. No research, no indicators, nothing but actual inside information can help you predict the gap. We are talking about how to play the stock once it gaps, regardless of whether you knew it was going gap. Aqui estão alguns exemplos.

In this example, GRPN gapped down (right arrow) and after the gap down, it moved another 20% over two days. Notice that, over two months ago, the stock gapped up and moved over 30% in one day; again, that is not counting the gap itself. Note also that if you owned the stock over four months, you would be only break even at best. If you played the stock the day of the gap up or the gap down for just the day, you played a stock that moved more in one day than most stocks do in an entire year.

This works in both directions. While ‘fear’ can drive prices lower at a faster rate, the proper bullish gaps can have the same effect.

YELP moved over 13% on the day it gapped. That is, from the time it opened, the entire move is able to be captured beginning at market open after the gap occurred. Notice something else. More than half of that move, over 7.5%, occurred in 20 minutes.

This should be amazing to you if you’re not aware of it already.

This is not a rare event. There are usually multiple stocks per day that this happens to. Because earnings announcements create an event that can cause additional gaps, this occurrence is usually more frequent during the time known as “earnings season,” which happens for about four weeks every three months.

Remember, big funds always have rules, and they often require that the fund cannot hold a position that goes a certain amount against them. This means big money is often forced to exit whether they want to or not. This often causes a snowball effect as the decline in price causes so much pain for other traders, that they sell, which creates more of a drop, which causes more pain and other traders to sell, etc. Take a look at the power of the recent STX daily chart.

Power. The power of big money. And if you know what you are doing, it can be one of the most predictable moves. These charts you are seeing are all the subject matter of plays that were discussed or traded on the morning that these gaps occurred in the Stock Swoosh Live Trading Room. This stock had two separate gaps that both created huge moves in a relatively short period of time. It is very common for a lot of that movement to happen first thing in the morning. Take a look at the 15-minute chart on the day of the second gap of STX.

That one single 15-minute bar moved over $3.00, or almost 13%. That was the bulk of the move for the day. By looking at the long - and short-term patterns prior to the gap, you can often get clues, usually very accurate clues, as to how the stock will react at open.

The stock called FEYE had a different type of gap. You can see the gap here on the daily chart, and yes, it produced another big red bar.

Now notice the five-minute chart. It started off green . Compradores

This was very predictable if you look at the daily chart. Yes, there were ‘buyers,’ but that doesn’t mean they were bullish. Who buys a stock and is not bullish? Simples. It’s traders who had short positions and had to ‘buy’ to exit the position. Looking at the chart, it was clear there were many with short positions. Couple that with a ‘big’ gap, and you get profit takers. Add to that those mistakenly thinking that this is a buying opportunity, and you get a morning bounce. But buying soon runs out. And those that bought because they were bullish are soon proved wrong and they add fuel to the fire by having to exit and add more pressure to the selling. Look at the pure powerful selling going into 10:30.

And finally one more example. Here is the daily chart of FIT.

Again, knowledge of the gap and understanding the daily chart is key. This stock was a little ‘all over the place’ during the first hour, but there were two great entries.

However, knowing and understanding what is happening this is very playable. The early play was possible, because when buyer are proven wrong on the opening bar, there will be selling. It came quick. But often the stock grinds back in the morning, but then sells off for the rest of the day. That 10:30 high marked the high for the rest of the day, and very strategic entries were available — entries that are high odds with great risk to reward.

Putting all of this together, trading morning gaps is not hard, but it is very counter intuitive for many new, or even somewhat experienced traders. Very simply stated, trading the proper, quality morning gaps is one of the few times you truly have an edge. If you are sick of hit or miss concepts, ask yourself what ‘edge’ do you currently have in your current trading strategies. Trading professional gaps has you trading on the side of big money. This means big moves. This means fast moves. This means that once you know the entries, stop outs are fewer than with most trading strategies.

Obrigado por ler este artigo. If you are serious about trading then feel free to reach out to us. I teach and trade only one method on gaps which I alone created. My method sets up fast and the trades move with momentum quickly, so you can trade and get on with your day. I only trade the first half hour of the market day. It is easy to follow my trades as I call them live while I'm taking them and only trade one stock at a time, and usually one stock only per day. There is no chitter-chatter in the room, it is just trading and teaching. If you want to make money and are focused on doing so then The Stock Swoosh can help teach you how. At the Stock Swoosh we have one focus during one time frame in order capitalize on trading the first 30 minutes of each day with a focus on shorting stocks that meet certain criteria.

We are offering exclusively to you, as a reader of the eMagazine Top Shelf Traders, a special offer if you sign up for our Golden Gap Course . Contact melissa@thestockswoosh for details.

Also if you want a trial to The Stock Swoosh Show Live Trading Room, email info@thestockswoosh with 'Free Trial Request' in the title.

If you have any other questions or are interested in our course please contact us at info@thestockswoosh or call 929-3200-GAP.

Author: Melissa Armo, Founder.

Services Offered: Trading Rooms, Trading Courses, Newsletters.

Markets Covered: Stocks, Options.

Melissa developed a system that capitalizes on the big moves that happen near the open of the market every day. She has built an international business that informs her clients how to trade successfully utilizing her system.

How to Trade a Bull Market with Options.

By Roger Scott, MarketGeeks.

In the short video below, I’m going to teach you how to trade a bull market with Options, safely and effectively. Throughout my 20+ years of experience trading stocks, options, futures and Forex markets, I have successfully developed and back-tested several strategies for trading the markets.

I develop actionable strategies that you can apply right away, without boring or complicated theory. You will learn tactics that can help you achieve consistent returns over time. Best of all, these strategies work with stocks, options, futures and Forex.

In this video, you will learn:

How to identify stocks that are extremely bullish How to spot low-risk entry opportunities with big profit potential How to target undervalued options that are ready for big gains.

For more information on How To Trade Bull Market With Options checkout Roger at his marketgeeks website to see all the wonderful information he has posted on his tips, technues and strategies for trading the markets.

Author: Roger Scott, Founder.

Services Offered: Trading Courses, Mentorship,

Markets Covered: Stocks, Options, Futures, Forex.

Market Geeks is widely known for providing traders around the world with the very best in short-term and day trading methodologies.

Putting the Short Squeeze on Options.

By Mark Sebastian, OptionPit.

One of the most profitable ways to trade is to spot a short squeeze in a stock, commodity, or index. They happen somewhat often in individual names, less often in commodities, and rarely in an index. Thus we are going to concentrate on looking at stock short squeezes which happen extremely often. In this chapter I will discuss what a short squeeze is, how to spot one, and finally how to trade a short squeeze using option trades in the simple form with a follow up in the form of a video that walks through a complex option approach.

Think of a name that makes no sense to the average trader. The valuation of that company is WHAT. “So what?” traders might ask themselves. The trader reads online that the company is grossly overvalued based on where the company’s revenues and growth are at ‘current levels.’ However, there are pundits and ‘fanboys’ that are ecstatic about the name. “What this company is doing is creating a totally new space that will change millions of lives!” The long side might say, sometimes, but rarely, this explanation is right. Think of names like Facebook or Amazon that have faced doubts and proven themselves to be worth the hype. More often than not though the non-sensical valuation turns out to be true.

Thus, a short squeeze is really created by two sides; on one side is a fundamental, if nonsensical demand for the company’s stock. This side truly believes in the vision and is willing to buy the stock up on this vision. On the other end is the widespread fundamental view that the company is not worth its current trading price and should be significantly lower. The result ends up, typically, crushing both sides of investors and making traders a lot of money if they know how to trade it.

Now that we know the fundamentals behind a short squeeze let’s discuss what causes the squeeze to happen. It all starts with stock loan. Recall the basic definition of a short selling (or shorting) from Investopedia:

Thus, basically a short seller is selling stock that he or she doesn’t own, but rather borrowed. This is where things get interesting. The process for borrowing stock is not as simple as it might seem. Aqui estão os passos:

Have a portfolio margined account with a clearing firm that will allow me to engage in borrowing stock (no easy task especially given new regulations). The trader tells the clearing firm that he or she would like to ‘short’ stock XYZ. The clearing firm then finds a ‘locate’ on the stock, matching the short seller to someone that is willing to loan out his or her stock (this is where things get tricky) If the stock is widely available, the clearing firm lets the trader borrow the stock, the stock is sold, the net proceeds are placed in an interest-bearing account If the stock is NOT widely available, the clearing firm may charge a ‘short rate’ on the stock. The short rate can be over 50% of the value of the stock. The higher the rate, the less stock is available to loan. These types of stocks are called ‘hard to borrow.’ Hopefully the stock goes down The trader covers the stock he or she bought, and returns it to the loaner.

Step 5 is where things can go off the rails, and step 5 is what creates a short squeeze. Almost unilaterally, stocks that are hard to borrow are the ones that create short squeezes. To the point that if a stock is easy to borrow, I do not bother looking for a short squeeze set up as they are so few and far between.

If a traders truly believe that a stock is toast, they typically do not mind paying the short rate on the stock because they are very certain the stock is going to go down. However, the danger is in that it means there are very few shares to borrow. Worse yet, clearing firms do not operate fairly. If a trader does a ton of business with the clearing firm or has more money with them, the trader’s access to stock will be better than a less profitable customer. This puts the short in a position to get beat. badly, creating the squeeze.

The squeeze begins with the trader getting a phone call that he is ‘on the hook’ for short stock. This means that a customer that WAS loaning out shares is considering selling his or her position. On the hook, means I might get my ‘short position’ taken away from me. In this case I have two options:

Cover the stock myself and return it Close my eyes and hope I don’t get bought in by the clearing firm.

Typically most people would rather choose the former. This increases buying demand in the stock, typically driving the stock higher. At the same time the general public and day traders start buying up the stock as its now a ‘hot stock’ and a mover. They may or may not put their stock up for loan. The stock being higher, also typically causes the customer to sell rather than hold, and the stock that was loaned is off the market, met with typically less supply. Given the rally in the stock others step in to try to sell the rally in the name, or the trader moves to sell the stock the next day again. Thus, the supply of stock to borrow is lower and the supply of short traders is higher.

This can turn into a nasty cycle of a stock moving higher and higher and higher. Especially because smart firms can take supply off ‘borrow’ and not actually sell the stock. At the end of the squeeze, all of the short stock sellers that do not have the capital to stay short cover the stock. The stock can be double its price or more. thus crushing the shorts. Then, the squeeze over, the firms that took their stock off loan dump the stock. This crushes the guys that ‘jumped into’ the hot stock as the underlying drops and drops and drops. Typically below where the short squeeze begins, until all of the ‘hot stock’ longs are out…thus crushing the uninformed longs.

Spotting the Short Squeeze:

The short squeeze is easy to spot from a chart perspective. If one is looking for them to trade, start by asking your broker for a list of stocks that are ‘hard to borrow’ and what the rates on that hard to borrow might be. The higher the rate the harder that stock is hard to borrow. The next piece is to look at the stocks daily volume.

In this case we are looking at Transocean: RIG.

Next look for a day where the volume is well above the average daily volume followed by another. In conjunction with a nice increase in the stock’s price, typically coming off of a tough couple of days, or some days of choppiness in the stock. Here is RIG on the 1st:

Then RIG on March 2nd.

Then the following morning there will be a HUGE increase in volume that leads toward a volume day amounting to likely near double the stocks normal average daily volume. In addition the stock will likely be up BIG on the open but despite the pop is likely to keep going. The is shorts getting squeezed out by margin calls and stock buy-ins.

RIG on March 3rd.

This is the time to make the point to go long the stock. However, one might want confirmation of a squeeze. It’s actually easy to confirm, take a look at the option implied volatility of the options. At the first move, the IV may go down as hedger and other market participants adjust risk on a rally. Additionally, IV has a natural inclination to fall when stocks start to rally. However, after an initial drop in IV, the IV will start to rally. See the structure of RIG below:

Notice IV is ticking up with volume and the stock, this is unusual. One can then see what the IV does the next day. Intuitively, what does one THINK happens to the stock? Below is the full chart for this data set notice the price action of RIG:

This is the classic short squeeze, price action, volume and implied volatility all align to show that there is a major squeeze on. The key is to be patient and not to try to jump in too early, wait until all 3 factors happen:

Stock Rallying IV Rallying Stock Volume up well above ADV 2 days in a row and exploding on the opening of the 3rd day.

Once this happens it is usually time to buy the underlying or set up a long trade using options. Looking at GPRO, it’s time to get out once the volume starts to dissipate in the name (one could look for a short set up but that is an entirely different chapter).

Setting up the trade with options.

One of the beautiful things about a short squeeze is that it will allow the trader to set up a long trade that is somewhat simple. The IV tends to go up and up and up. And the stock tends to rally and rally, with intermittent random drops, but the IV will be stable on drops. The beauty is that if one gets in on the beginning of the 3rd day, often the option market has not fully figured out what is actually going on. There has yet to be a true ‘rush’ for options. This makes call options look favorably.

However at option pit we typically hedge everything. Thus we will apply a directional delta to a straddle or strangle. In a name like RIG let’s look at how we might have set up a strangle on March 2nd.

Take a look at the Option Montage from LivevolX.

We might look at RIG 10.5 straddle with about 3 weeks to expire. We might pay .87 and .55 for the strangle adding up to 1.32 debit for the straddle. Now recall this is the end of the day snapshot, not even the cheap levels that were available in the morning. This allows for the trade to do well if the stock moves back from whence it came (below 9 dollars) or if the stock completely explodes. Now let’s look at how the directional delta works out the following day.

While the S&P was up about 4 on this day RIG was up 17%. There is something going on in the energy sector.

Now that the straddle has been a home run, the trader would typically dump all of the calls (looking in the huge win) selling them at 2.65. The IV still has room to run, so the trader might then set up a new trade buying 13 calls (this time just out of the money) for about .75 or so. The trade now owns the calls and the existing puts and has a credit in his or her pocket.

If the trade slows down for even a second, unwind the whole trade. A whole new short squeeze trade may set itself up. It can happen over the ebb and flow of trading multiple times.

Now you have seen how to set up a standard short squeeze, you might consider signing up for Option Pit Live. We are offering a special trial to Option Pit Live: Our subscription chat room and strategy letter for new and budding professional traders. This subscription is normally $125.00 a month, but you can give it a try for just $17.00. Even better, after your 1st month rather than $125, you pay $97 a month for this amazing subscription.

This chat room will give you special access to Option Pit live traders that are considered among the best in the world. Additionally, the subscription comes with some amazing education that only subscribers get for free. Non-subscribers pay big dollars for the same information.

The Option Pit Strategy Letter full of daily actionable ideas, adjustment & risk management strategies.

Free access to our Monthly Saturday classes when we ‘delve deep’ into a subject, these classes sell for on our site at $247.00. Daily Recorded lessons on management: The Pit Report 2+ Hours to Option Pit's Professional Traders All day access to Option Pit's Chat Room Special deals and free goodies from Option Pit Access to special deals on software and brokerage.

This offer will only be available for a short period of time. In order to make sure the chat room does not become diluted, this offer will be removed once the first 88 members sign up!

Author: Mark Sebastian, Founder.

Services Offered: Trading Room, Trading Courses, Mentorship.

Markets Covered: Stocks, Options.

Mark Sebastian é um ex-membro do Chicago Board Options Exchange e da American Stock Exchange. He is also the author of the popular trading manual "The Option Traders Hedge Fund."

Why the Best Traders Ignore Price Action…

Learn the hidden volume technue that supersedes price action and allows you to profit at will.

High Probability Technical Setups.

By Serge Berger, TheSteadyTrader.

In this short video, I’m going to share the best high probability technical setups I have used in my 20-year trading career.

I divide the world of trading into two types of technical patterns.

Consolidation patterns, and Reversal (bottoming/topping) patterns.

Technical patterns give us a repeatable process to help define our entry and exit points. When you simplify your trading and apply proper risk management, you can help take some of the emotions out of trading.

This video will focus on how to identify and apply the two key types of technical patterns.

Author: Serge Berger, Founder.

Company: The Steady Trader.

Services Offered: Trading Room, Trading Courses, Mentorship.

Markets Covered: Stocks, Options, Futures, Forex.

Over the years, Serge has created a trading methodology that divides markets into different time-frames and characters, allowing him to more clearly and without emotions determine which strategies to apply in which situations.

Hedging the Trump Rally.

By Matthew Buckley, TopGunOptions.

E. Matthew ‘Whiz’ Buckley is the Chief Options Strategist for Top Gun Options LLC. He served as the Managing Director of Strategy at PEAK6 Investments in Chicago, the largest volatility arbitrage firm in the world. He was also the founder and CEO of the Options News Network, which provided retail options traders of all skill levels a behind the scenes look at the options market and world class options training. He’s also a former F/A-18 Navy fighter pilot who graduated from the Navy Fighter Weapons School (TOP GUN) and flew 44 combat sorties over Iraq.

In this video, Whiz covers a little-known TOP SECRET tactic that serves as a portfolio hedge and trade, a term he calls a ‘Tredge”. Mr. Buckley covers his proprietary Strategic/Operational/Tactical methodology and why he believes volatility is going to spike in the near term as the market rolls over. Record high markets, record low volatility, and unprecedented world and domestic events are a perfect setup for a bullish double vertical on VXX.

To take a 2-week test flight and check out the 4 portfolios Whiz manages from Weekly Options to Accelerated Retirement follow this link.

Whiz produces a daily market SITREP (situation report) which covers his take on the markets and world events along with potential actionable trades.

Services Offered: Trading Courses, Mentorship, Trade Alerts.

Markets Covered: Stocks, Options.

Whiz is a highly experienced financial business executive, and decorated Naval Aviator who graduated from Naval Fighter Weapons School (“TOPGUN”).

Identify the Rotation of Money – The Best Way to Reduce Risk.

By Jason Leavitt, LeavittBrothers.

Over time, 80-85% of stocks under-perform the market. Let that sink in for a minute - 80-85% of stocks under-perform.

At first glance this doesn't seem to make sense. You'd think some stocks would do well and others would do poorly, and the market would be the average right in the middle. But this isn't the case because for every Netflix - and Netflix rallied 1800% from its 2011 bottom to its 2015 top - there are 20 or 30 stocks that under-perform.

For every Starbucks – it rallied 17X off its 2008 low – there are dozens that fall 10 or 20 or 30%. For every Tesla, for every Google, for every Amazon, for every Facebook, for every Priceline, there are 10 or 20 or 30 stocks that under-perform. And for every stock that does well but doesn’t knock the ball out of the ball park, there are still 2 or 3 or 4 stocks that under-perform.

Let's say this is the distribution of gains and losses of each stock in the S&P 500. The average is about 12%, but as you can see, most stocks under-perform while a much smaller percentage out-performs. And an even smaller percentage out-performs by a large margin.

Chart1: Distribution of gains and loss for each S&P 500 stock. In this example, the S&P was up 12%. Most stocks under-performed; many less out-performed and even less out-performed by a wide margin.

This is typical. Over time, whatever the market does, most stocks will do worse. Only 15-20% will do better and less than 10% will truly do great.

This means the only way to beat the market is to be in some of the stocks that out-perform by a wide margin. It’s the only way. And you wonder why so many funds underperform.

By definition, it would be impossible to beat the market with a well-diversified portfolio because by default, many of the stocks in the fund would be invested in stocks that don't do well.

Money rotates around the market. Groups run hot and cold. At any given time, there will be a handful of groups doing extremely well and almost everything else will be just on par with the market or doing worse.

And groups that are hot stay hot for a while. We’re not talking about day to day strength. We’re not talking about news causing a group to perk up in the near term. We’re talking about an underlying theme that persists for several months and often upwards of a year.

The only way to out-perform the market is to be in the best stocks in the best groups at any given time.

It’s also the best way to get the odds in your favor and reduce risk.

Groups that trade on par with the market are inherently risky simply because you must be a great stock picker. If the market moves up 10%, you must be great at determining which stocks are going to be up 15-20%.

This is hard, and there’s little room for error. If you’re off by a small amount, you’ll be lucky to match the market’s performance. But if you select stocks from among the groups doing the best at any given time, you have more wiggle room; you have much more room for error because if you’re off by a little bit, you’ll still be in good shape. And when you have a couple small losses, they’ll easily be countered by a handful of big gains.

The goal of this report is to expose a strategy for finding high quality set-ups with limited risk. Here’s the short answer.

The best set-ups are not isolated. You are not attempting to find a random great performer among many. You start with the groups that are doing the best, and then you look inside the group for the best opportunities.

It’s not a certain indicator. Or a certain metric. Or any other statistical measure. It’s picking stocks that give you the most room for error, so when mistakes are made – and they will be made – or bad luck happens – and it will happen – you have a buffer to work with.

If I gave you a group of stocks and said: “Most of these stocks will be on par with the market; some will do a little better; some will do a little worse; try to figure out the best ones,” you’d have a huge challenge on your hands. But if I gave you a group and said: “Some of these will be so-so, but many will out-perform the market by a wide market;” you would get genuinely excited about your income potential.

Choosing from the leading groups – as opposed to just choosing from among everything – is the best way to keep the odds in your favor and reduce risk.

Between its February low and the August high, the S&P 500 gained about 20%. That’s great for the overall market. Here’s a quick chart.

Chart 2: S&P 500 January 1, 2016 – August 22, 2016.

During this time, gold and silver stocks rallied several hundred percent. See below for small sample.

Chart 3: A sampling of gold and silver stocks that crushed the market between mid-winter and late-summer.

Am I cherry-picking the best-performers? No. I played all of these.

And here are some oil stocks I played. Again, the S&P moved up about 20%. Many of these doubled or tripled.

Chart 4: A sampling of oil stocks that out-performed the market by a wide margin between winter and late-summer.

Once the best groups are identified, a blind monkey can pick winning stocks. This is why the best way to get the odds in your favor and reduce risk is to pick stocks from the best-performing groups, instead of from among the entire market.

Said another way, you want to pick groups that are on the far right-side of Chart 1 above. Yes, there will be random outliers from among the “on par” groups, but doesn’t it seem easier and safer to pick from among the groups that are out-performing by a wide margin?

How does this play out when standing back and looking at the big picture?

I’ve already commented that money rotates around the market; groups run hot and cold. A group will be strong for four months. Then money will rotate out and into a different group. This group will lead for a couple months, and then again money will rotate to another group.

See Chart 4 for a graphical representation of what takes place on a continual basis. The red group may be strong from mid-February to the beginning of August. During this time, the blue group has two months of out-performance between early-March and late-April. Money rotates out of the green group and into the black group. Etc. Etc.

Chart 5: A graphical example of how money may rotate between groups.

This is how you reduce risk – by first identifying the groups that are doing the best, and then drilling down into those groups to find the best opportunities. You want to focus your attention on the groups that are on the right side of the histogram chart above. Any other method invites additional risk because you don’t have peer support at your back.

Through the first eleven months of 2016, only 3.4% of groups (Morningstar identifies 238 Industry Groups) had posted a 100% gain at some point during the year. Only 3.4%. If you could pinpoint the exact bottom and exact top, only 8 of 238 groups doubled at some point.

Less than 23% rallied at least 50% off its low.

Over 70% traded on par with the market.

The only way to beat the market is to be in the small percentage that out-performed by a wide margin – or least in the 23% that did noticeably better. It’s also the best way to reduce risk.

There’s an old saying on Wall Street: There’s a bull market somewhere.

It’s true, and this is exactly what I’m getting at. Find the bull market. Focus there. And then the concept of a rising tide raising all ships comes into play.

Reducing risk happens when you have a steady wind at your back. It happens with strong peer support.

It doesn’t happen when a certain technical indicator turns up – indicators are constantly wrong or early. Or when an analyst upgrades the stock – it’s laughable how many times a stock starts trending down after analysts jump on the bandwagon. Or when earnings are good – most of the time the strength/weakness of a stock is more powerful than an earnings report.

No, reducing risk happens when you play a stock that is on the far right side of the histogram chart above. That’s where you have room for error. That’s where you have a buffer.

You can’t be lazy. You still have to manage positions wisely (gold and silver did great, as noted above, but have been terrible performers the last couple months). But as a starting point, this is the best way to reduce risk. Pick from among the leading groups.

At Leavitt Brothers we live by two beliefs.

A tendência é sua amiga. There’s a bull market somewhere.

To help our subscribers profit from our first belief we publish two reports. LB Weekly, which is published once/week every Sunday morning, discusses the big-picture trends and the staying power of those trends. LB Daily, published after the close Mon-Thurs, is a sister report of LB Weekly. It discusses a wider range of topics and is meant for those who want to be closer to the action.

To address belief #2, we publish Sector Breakdown & Idéias de Negociação. This report identifies where the bull markets are and drills down to find the best stocks within those groups.

For a free trial, simply open an account at LeavittBrothers, and we’ll put you on the list.

Author: Jason Leavitt, Founder & Head of Research.

Services Offered: Boutue Research Firm, Market Analysis Reports.

Markets Covered: Stocks, Options.

Jason Leavitt is the founder and head of research at LeavittBrothers - a boutue research firm which offers market analysis and trading ideas to hedge funds, financial advisors and full - and part-time independent traders.

Major Market Types to Trade.

By Nic Lovelace, TheSuperTrader.

In this simple and informative training video, you will learn how to recognize bull markets, how to recognize bear markets, and how to recognize sideways markets.

If you’ve ever been confused by technical analysis or technical trading in the past, this video will help you gain a solid foundation in performing technical analysis. We’ll cover the basics of how to read Price Action, along with an overview of how to trade options.

We will take a closer look at time frames to trades to find key support and resistance levels. You will learn the 3 major Market Types and the 6 Micro Market Types to help you drill down to better trading opportunities.

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Services Offered: Trading Education, Trade ideas, Community Partnerships.

Markets Covered: Equity Indices, Equities, Options.

Founder and Head Trader at REN Capital Management, an Index Options based Hedge Fund. Founder/Head Trader at The Super Trader, a website focusing on assisting retail trader/investors with income trading.

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ETFs Offer Greater Investment Opportunities.

By Matthew D. Sauer, MutualFundInvestorGuide.

How Income Investors Can Profit from ETFs.

ETF investors have a wide range of options for fixed income investing, which provides flexibility when anticipating changes in interest rates. Even more importantly, the fees associated with income ETFs are typically very low versus their mutual fund counterparts. With an understanding of the basics of bond investing, investors can make the best decision given the hundreds of choices available.

Typical bonds are fairly simple to understand. We know with certainty the absolute amount that a bond will pay at maturity. Therefore, the primary determinant of the nominal return on an investment in a bond is the price at which the bond was initially purchased. Price also determines interest rate. Most bonds make fixed income payments, so when bond prices rise, the yield on the bond falls. When the bond price falls, yields rise, meaning prices move inversely to interest rates.

A bond's valuation is simply the present value of its future cash flows, which consist of the coupon payments and the payment at maturity. A discount rate, which takes into account the time value of money and the uncertainty of future payments, is applied to these cash flows to arrive at a single value that is the sum of what all those payments are worth today. If a bond pays 8 percent interest each year, the first year's interest payment is discounted by 8 percent, the second year by 8 percent squared, and so on. Cash to be paid in the future is worth less today than cash paid today. Using this method, if you invest $1,000 at 8 percent for 10 years, it will grow to $2,159. If, instead, you buy a bond that will pay you $1,000 in 10 years with no interest payments (a zero-coupon bond), and interest rates are currently 8 percent, the bond will sell for $463. If you buy $1,000 worth of those zero-coupon bonds, in 10 years you will have $2,159.

In general, the longer the maturity of a bond, the higher the interest rate. If you see an exception to this rule, pay close attention, because it may mean a recession or a sovereign debt crisis is looming. The longer the maturity, the greater the interest rate risk, because the return of principal is further in the future.

The best measure of interest rate risk is duration, which provides an idea of how much a bond will change given an increase or decrease in interest rates. Duration is similar to maturity, but it also takes into account cash flows. The higher the cash flow from a bond (the sooner cash is paid), the lower the impact of changes in interest rates. A bond that has a high coupon payment has a shorter duration than a bond of the same maturity with a lower coupon payment. For example, a five-year junk bond will generally have a shorter duration, and thus less interest rate risk, than a five-year Treasury.

Another important factor in bond valuation is credit risk. The riskier a bond, the more interest investors will demand. A five-year junk bond has much higher credit risk than a five-year Treasury bond. Investors in Treasuries don't worry about being repaid, since the United States government has never defaulted on its debt and never should, even in the worst-case scenario, due to its control of the money supply. Conversely, investors in a company with high debt and weak profits are naturally more cautious due to the higher likelihood of default.

Three other terms to be familiar with are coupon, yield, and yield-to-maturity (YTM). The coupon on a bond is its interest payment. Let's take the example of a bond with a face value of $1,000. If the coupon is 5 percent, the bond pays $50 each year. The yield is similar to dividend yield, as it is the coupon divided by the current price of the bond. YTM also factors in the profit or loss from buying a bond at a discount or a premium to its face value. Since the bond will repay $1,000 at maturity, if you buy it at a discount, you can earn a profit, while if you purchase it at a premium, you will lose money at maturity. YTM is the total return you'll receive if you buy the bond today and hold to maturity.

Finally, when evaluating a bond fund, look for the 30-day SEC yield. This is the most accurate current snapshot of the bond's yield because it takes into account the dividends and interest earned during the 30-day period after deducting the fund's expenses. As such, it is a more accurate reflection of the actual net cash paid to the bondholder.

These data points are available for every bond ETF on fund providers' websites, on sites such as Morningstar and our ETF Investor Guide newsletter. Below, we'll look at how investors can evaluate some high-yield bond funds using duration and yield as the main considerations.

Short-term high-yield bond funds provide some protection from changes in interest rates. We recommend investigating two funds in this category: SPDR Barclays Short Term High Yield Bond (SJNK) and PIMCO 0-5 Year High Yield Corporate Bond (HYS). SJNK has a 30-day SEC yield of 4.99 percent and a duration of 2.1 years, and HYS has a 30-day SEC yield of 3.97 percent and a duration of 1.93 years. Investors get a respectable yield from both funds, and the impact of a change in interest rates would be relatively low.

For investors looking for higher yield and willing to take on additional risk, junk bonds are still among the best choices as long as credit risk remains subdued. SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond (JNK) yields 4.95 percent and has a duration of 3.53 years. iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) has a 30-day SEC yield of 4.73 percent and a duration of 3.48 years.

Investors who are worried about higher interest rates should look at funds that offer hedged protection, such as ProShares High Yield-Interest Rate Hedged (HYHG) and Market Vectors Treasury-Hedged High Yield Bond (THHY). These funds offset their holdings in high-yield bonds with short positions on U. S. Treasuries. These funds incur higher expenses due to the need to buy derivatives to take the short positions on Treasuries necessary to hedge, so they pass on some of these costs to investors through a higher expense ratio. In this type of fund, investors forgo the chance to profit from falling interest rates, but they are protected from higher interest rates as long as Treasuries fall in price in proportion to any decrease in the prices of high-yield bonds.

If interest rates rise during a strong economic recovery, credit risk should remain low, but bond prices will decline. As long as the yield gap between high-yield bonds and Treasuries stays roughly the same (which means credit risk remains constant), bonds of similar maturities should fall in tandem. Investors will lose money as the price of the high-yield bonds falls but earn it back from the short position on Treasuries. In comparison, investors in a non-hedged junk bond fund would see the fund's price decline. The worst time to hold a hedged high-yield bond fund would be in a recession, where junk bonds tumble and Treasuries rally. In that case, the junk bond holdings in a fund like HYHG lose value and, instead of being protected with the short position on Treasuries, lose even more as Treasury bonds rise in price. A recession doesn't appear likely in the near term. In fact, if anything, investors and the Fed are uneasy about the effects of a stronger economy on the bond markets.

HYHG has a duration of negative 0.08 years. If a bond fund has a negative duration, it has short positions. This means if interest rates on the relevant U. S. Treasuries increase 1 percent and junk bonds also see the same increase in rates, HYHG would gain 0.3 percent. HYG would stand to lose about 4 percent in value. For investors interested in these types of hedged ETFs, we provided additional information our ETF Investor Guide newsletter.

Due to the large number of bond funds in existence, there are numerous funds that target similar segments of the market yet have variation in the index construction. Yield, duration, maturity, and expenses can vary, and investors should consider all aspects of a fund before deciding which fund is the best choice for their portfolio. Also, as always, don't forget to consider each fund's fees when making an investment decision. Higher fees have an impact on returns, and some of the funds discussed, particularly the hedged funds, do have increased expense ratios.

Dissecting Major Indexes has become Easier for ETF Investors.

The S&P 500 Index is one of the most popular stock market indexes, and there are dozens of ETFs that offer exposure to the index in various forms. The S&P 500 was created in 1957 and comprises 500 stocks chosen by a committee, based on specific criteria such as their industry, luidity, and market size. This group of 500 companies is designed to reflect the risk/return of the entire large cap market. It is seen as a leading indicator of the general economy. The index is also one of the most commonly used benchmarks for determining the performance of various mutual funds and ETFs, including many funds that cover a broad universe of large cap U. S. stocks. In several cases, these funds are designed to track the S&P 500 Index itself.

The proliferation of these ETFs means that there are several from which investors can choose. Some of these funds provide near identical returns to the benchmark and are very similar in structure. Others may focus on a select subsection of the S&P 500 Index, such as dividends or growth.

A stable, long-term diversified investment should be the core foundation of a portfolio. These central holdings are investments that are reliable year in and year out. As a result, core holdings are often stocks, mutual funds, or ETFs that largely track the S&P 500 Index. Core holdings are less volatile than secondary holdings that may deviate more widely from the market on a short-term basis. A core S&P 500 ETF is often the least expensive, most cost-effective approach to building this foundation. These funds offer luidity and a diversified exposure to U. S. equities because they serve as a proxy for the market as a whole.

The most popular ETF that meets the requirements for inclusion in a core portfolio is the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). It has become one of the most widely traded financial instruments in the world since its inception in 1993. In addition to a low expense ratio of 0.10 percent, SPY replicates the benchmark index to near perfection. Alternative selections to the SPY include the iShares S&P 500 Index (IVV) and the Vanguard 500 Index Fund (VOO). Both funds try to attract investors with lower expense ratios, as they both charge 0.04 percent. SPY remains the most popular of the three as measured by assets because it allows large hedge funds to move in and out smoothly. VOO trades about 2 million shares a day, IVV 3.6 million, and SPY approximately 79 million.

Another group of funds are those that slice the market into growth and value categories. In the growth category, these ETFs track the S&P 500 Pure Growth Index or S&P 500 Growth Index while keeping expenses low.

Investors seeking growth should consider the Guggenheim S&P 500 Pure Growth Fund (RPG), which targets only those S&P 500 companies displaying the strongest growth characteristics. The result is a much more targeted portfolio than alternative investments, such as SPDR S&P 500 Growth (SPYG), Vanguard S&P 500 Growth (VOOG), or iShares S&P 500 Growth (IVW) ETFs. We prefer RPG because while the S&P 500 Growth Index tracks growth stocks using sales growth, the ratio of earnings change to price, and momentum, the S&P 500 Pure Growth Index takes the approach further by weighting shares based on their relative style propensity. In other words, stocks that show more growth characteristics are weighted more heavily in the index, rather than market capitalization.

The index providers take the same approach with value, offering the same index methodology adjusted for value. The S&P 500 Value Index uses book value, earnings, and sales to price to assess a stock's value, while the Pure Value Index concentrates these metrics and weights the stocks based on their fulfillment of the criteria.

Investors seeking a more conservative approach have a choice of funds as well. Conservative-focused S&P 500 ETFs make sense during times of market volatility. While these ETFs may not see large returns, they may mitigate extreme losses. Conservative funds can also be used as the basis of a core portfolio by investors facing or currently in retirement, when capital preservation and income become a primary focus.

Conservative investors looking for S&P 500 coverage should consider the PowerShares S&P 500 High Quality (SPHQ) or SPDR S&P Dividend (SDY) ETFs. SPHQ is designed to track the performance of the S&P High Quality Rankings Index. The index comprises stocks identified as being the highest quality based on growth and stability of dividends that have a quality rating of A or above. SDY is a dividend fund that invests in stocks that generate the highest dividend income as well as demonstrate the ability to increase those dividend payouts over time.

These two ETFs Offer Investment Alternatives.

Two funds take a different approach to weighting the securities in the S&P 500 Index. The simplest is the Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal Weight (RSP). This ETF weights each stock in the S&P 500 equally, which results in a portfolio with greater weight in telecom, utilities, and materials, and less in technology and finance. One of the complaints against a market cap weighted index such as the S&P 500 is that companies that do well grow to a larger share of the index, thus concentrating holdings in overvalued companies over time. Since the equally weighted index will sell off stocks that rise and buy those that lagged at each rebalancing, it reduces this risk somewhat. However, since the S&P 500 Index contains some smaller companies along with giants such as Exxon (XOM), the equal weight portfolio leans toward Morningstar's midcap style box. This helps the fund during bull markets when midcaps and small caps tend to outperform, but could cost it during bear markets.

Another fund taking a different approach to the S&P 500 Index is Oppenheimer Large Cap Revenue (RWL). This ETF weights each of the stocks in the S&P 500 Index by their share of total S&P 500 revenues. Whereas Apple (AAPL) is the largest holding in SPY, RWL counts Wal-Mart (W) as its largest holding. The argument for using the revenue share for weighting the index is like that of equally weighting the funds - it avoids holding overvalued shares. Since revenues have some bearing on a firm's health, however, Oppenheimer argues that it's a better way of weighting the index.

Recent studies have shown that stocks with high volatility do not always yield the best overall returns when adjusted for risk. Lower volatility stocks, such as those contained within the S&P 500 Index, have historically traded at a net discount to their riskier counterparts. As a result, these more stable issues are recommended as the basis for the core portion of a portfolio.

Due to their cost and tax efficiencies, S&P 500 ETFs can always have a role in building an overall diversified portfolio. Investors looking to establish core holdings should consider a low-cost S&P 500 ETF as a starting point for exposure. The cheaper options make more sense for buy-and-hold investors.

Investors seeking additional growth during a bull market should consider the Guggenheim S&P 500 Pure Growth ETF (RPG). By focusing on stocks within the S&P Index demonstrating the highest growth potential, RPG provides the opportunity to invest in a slightly more aggressive strategy while sticking within the S&P 500 universe.

Investors with a conservative focus can choose between the PowerShares S&P 500 Quality (SPHQ) and the SPDR S&P Dividend (SDY) funds. These ETFs invest in less volatile high-quality stocks that pay above average income with the potential for increased earnings.

Click on the link below to view a FREE copy of ETF INVESTOR GUIDE Seven Model Portfolio’s to Guide your investments in ETF’s Subscribe now and take advantage of an extra ebook17 10% discount off the already 50% discounted new subscriber price Receive monthly issues online, by mail, or both.

Author: Matthew D. Sauer, Esq. & ndash; Fundador & amp; Chief Investment Officer.

Company: Mutual Fund Investor Guide.

Services Offered: Market Research Reports.

Markets Covered: Fidelity & Vanguard Funds, ETFs, Global Momentum Funds.

The Mutual Fund Investor Guide is the leading source for timely, concise and unbiased advice for mutual fund and ETF investors. Our recommendations give you the power to easily manage your investments: receive buy, hold and sell recommendations for hundreds of funds, plus model portfolios designed for conservative, moderate and aggressive investors.

Configurações de probabilidade alta.

para ações e opções.

Direto de traders, investidores e educadores com experiência na linha de frente e know-how técnico, vem uma coleção de mais de 20 de suas estratégias de alto desempenho para negociar ações, opções e ETFs.

© 2018 ExpireInTheMoney. Todos os direitos reservados.

Existe um alto grau de risco envolvido na negociação. Resultados passados ​​não são indicativos de retornos futuros. A ExpireInTheMoney e todos os indivíduos afiliados a este site não assumem responsabilidades pelos seus resultados de negociação e investimento. Os indicadores, estratégias, colunas, artigos e todos os outros recursos são apenas para fins educacionais e não devem ser interpretados como conselhos de investimento. As informações para quaisquer observações de negociação são obtidas de fontes consideradas confiáveis, mas não garantimos sua integridade ou precisão, nem garantimos quaisquer resultados do uso das informações. O uso que você faz das observações de negociação é inteiramente por sua conta e risco e é de sua exclusiva responsabilidade avaliar a exatidão, integralidade e utilidade das informações. Ao fazer o download deste livro, suas informações podem ser compartilhadas com nossos parceiros educacionais. Você deve avaliar o risco de qualquer negociação com seu corretor e tomar suas próprias decisões independentes com relação a quaisquer valores mobiliários mencionados neste documento. As Afiliadas da ExpireInTheMoney podem ter uma posição ou efetuar transações nos valores mobiliários aqui descritos (ou opções sobre elas) e / ou empregar estratégias de negociação que possam ser consistentes ou inconsistentes com as estratégias fornecidas.

Livros de negociação de ações grátis.

Free Download of Trading Ebooks (Ebooks in pdf) on Day Trading, Swing Trading, Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis and Money Management. The same content is also stored here: squidoo/tradingbookscollection.

Thursday, December 31, 2009.

[Ebook Download 11] High Probability Trading.

7 comentários:

this not a Marcel Link's book. this is a book by Robert Miner.

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Perry Kaufman New trading system and methods.

this is a decent book; beginner to intermediate level, i would say.

This is very decent and interesting book. Very informative too.

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THE EQUICOM CALL: SELL BANK NIFTY FUTURES BELOW 18495 TG - 18470/18330/18250 SL - 18570 (CMP - 18498).

Estratégias de Negociação de Alta Probabilidade: Táticas de Entrada e Saída para Forex, Futuros e Bolsas de Valores.

Descrição do livro.

Em Estratégias de Negociação de Alta Probabilidade, o autor e conhecido educador de negócios Robert Miner habilmente delineia todos os aspectos de um plano de negociação prático - da entrada à saída - que ele desenvolveu ao longo de sua distinta carreira de mais de vinte anos. O resultado é uma abordagem completa à negociação que lhe permitirá negociar com confiança em diversos mercados e prazos. Escrito com o comerciante sério em mente, este recurso confiável detalha uma abordagem comprovada para analisar o comportamento do mercado, identificando configurações de comércio rentáveis ​​e executando e gerenciando negócios - da entrada à saída.

Nota: CD-ROM / DVD e outros materiais suplementares não são incluídos como parte do arquivo do eBook.

high probability trading strategies.

Estratégias de Negociação de Alta Probabilidade.

Author by : Robert C. Miner.

Editora: John Wiley & Sons.

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Description : In High Probability Trading Strategies, author and well-known trading educator Robert Miner skillfully outlines every aspect of a practical trading plan–from entry to exit–that he has developed over the course of his distinguished twenty-plus-year career. O resultado é uma abordagem completa à negociação que lhe permitirá negociar com confiança em diversos mercados e prazos. Escrito com o comerciante sério em mente, este recurso confiável detalha uma abordagem comprovada para analisar o comportamento do mercado, identificando configurações de comércio rentáveis ​​e executando e gerenciando negócios - da entrada à saída.

Alta probabilidade de negociação.

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Download total: 627.

Tamanho do arquivo: 48,7 Mb.

Description : Many traders go around searching for that one perfect trading strategy that works all the time in the market. Freqüentemente, eles vão reclamar que uma estratégia não funciona. Poucas pessoas entendem que a negociação bem-sucedida do mercado envolve a aplicação do High Probability Trading com uma estratégia adequada de gerenciamento de risco e dinheiro. Este livro mostrará os prós e contras e altos e baixos da negociação de curto prazo. Você aprenderá quando comprar e vender ações e alcançará um portfólio geral lucrativo no final de cada mês, por meio do uso de estratégias de negociação de alta probabilidade. Este livro contém princípios de negociação testados e comprovados para ensinar como criar e refinar um portfólio de negociação. Estratégias e conteúdo incluem: • Aumentar o seu dinheiro fazendo potencial quando o mercado fica ruim • Maximizar seus retornos usando produtos de alavancagem • Técnicas de gráficos simples para contornar os principais slides do mercado • Selecionando Negociações de Alta Probabilidade com boas entradas e existências e gerenciamento de dinheiro de uma carteira Preenchido com conselhos práticos, este livro inestimável é ideal para novos e atuais comerciantes que desejam melhorar seu desempenho comercial. Estratégias no livro são aplicáveis ​​não apenas para ações, mas também índices, commodities e negociação forex.

E Study Guide For High Probability Trading Strategies By Robert L Miner Isbn 9780470181669.

Author by : Cram101 Textbook Reviews.

Publisher by : Cram101 Textbook Reviews.

Formato disponível: PDF, ePub, Mobi.

Total Download : 816.

Tamanho do arquivo: 48,5 Mb.

Description : Never Highlight a Book Again! Apenas os guias de estudo FACTS101 fornecem ao aluno os resumos, destaques, quizzes de prática e acesso opcional aos testes práticos completos para o livro didático.

How To Trade With High Probability.

Author by : Ricardo Moneta.

Editora: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform.

Formato disponível: PDF, ePub, Mobi.

Download total: 498.

Tamanho do arquivo: 46,9 Mb.

Description : Beginner traders all make the same mistakes over and over because they don‘t know any better, they also don’t use low risk high reward high probability technues in their trading and investing; now you can. Beginner traders tend to do what everyone else is doing and study what everyone else is studying thus they have the same results and failures as everyone else and is very low probability, don’t be that trader! This financial market trading business isn’t really an H&P type of business, what is H&P you might be asking, hoping and praying, you don’t need a rosary you need an edge. I’m not going to sugar coat it, this business is an ugly place for an untrained and underfunded beginner. There are very bad people in the live market who are looking to take all of your money from you, and they will should you not be prepared properly to go to work in the live markets, don’t say I haven’t tried to warn you. Use this book as an overview or a guide if you will, for what to study and learn first to become consistently profitable from trading utilizing the high probability technues in the book. I give you concise information as to what type of high probability technues to learn and what to look for as far as further advanced information is concerned. I tell you only the most critical things to learn first because those are absolutely the most important and the ones that will have a high probability of making you money right away if you do them. Simple, basic and easy to understand, if I can give you one word of advice, I will tell you to keep it simple because trading really is simple if you keep it that way. You do not need any indicators or fancy systems, methods or software that the so called gurus are all touting to do high probability trading. The market only works on supply and demand and supply and demand is the only thing that moves price on a chart from one value area to another. Doesn’t it make sense then to study what makes the market do what it does and use that as your high probability trading method?

Alta probabilidade de negociação.

Author by : Marcel Link.

Editora: McGraw Hill Professional.

Formato disponível: PDF, ePub, Mobi.

Download total: 462.

Tamanho do arquivo: 42,5 Mb.

Descrição: Um denominador comum entre a maioria dos novos traders é que, dentro de seis meses do lançamento de sua nova busca, eles estão sem dinheiro e sem negociação. A negociação de alta probabilidade suaviza o impacto dessa "taxa de juros do trader", detalhando um programa abrangente para enfrentar os primeiros meses perigosos e se tornar um profissional lucrativo. Este livro sem sentido leva um olhar grosseiro às realidades da negociação. Repleto de exemplos da vida real e destinados ao uso por comerciantes de curto e longo prazo, explora cada aspecto da negociação bem sucedida.

Reconhecimento prático de padrões para tendências e correções.

Author by : Robert C. Miner.

Editora: John Wiley & Sons.

Formato disponível: PDF, ePub, Mobi.

Total Download : 188.

Tamanho do arquivo: 41,7 Mb.

Description : Praise for High Probability Trading Strategies "Robert Miner's new book should be on the 'must have' list for any trader. One of Robert's unue and practical concepts is his Dynamic Time Strategy to project market reversals in any time frame. After a twenty-five-year friendship with Bob, I can honestly say that he is a consummate market timer." — ARARRY PESAVENTO, tradutora "As estratégias abrangentes de preço, padrão, tempo e momento da Robert Miner demonstram amplamente que ele é um técnico e comerciante mestre. Esta é uma leitura obrigatória para qualquer pessoa interessada na aplicação prática da negociação Elliott Wave, Fibonacci e Gann. technues. " --KERRY SZYMANSKI, analista de negociação / corretora, La Canada Capital Management "Bob Miner tem sido meu mentor por anos e continua a educar-me de uma maneira sensata. Este novo livro deve ajudar o trader a refinar suas entradas e criar uma negociação viável. Eu sou grato por tudo que eu aprendi com ele ao longo dos anos! " — CAROLYN BORODEN, Synchronicity Market Timing, LLC, Fibonaccuen; e autor de Fibonacci Trading "Este livro é uma grande contribuição para a compreensão e aplicação da gestão comercial completa. O livro ensina ao comerciante aspectos cruciais sobre o mercado que são essenciais para o sucesso a longo prazo nos mercados." — SANDY JADEJA, estrategista-chefe de mercado, chefe de treinamento global da ODL Markets. “High Probability Trading Strategies é um guia prático sem exagero para fazer o que é necessário para um sucesso duradouro como profissional. Robert oferece a quem está comprometido em aprender a negociar bem. tanto bons conselhos e detalhes específicos, muitas vezes negligenciados por outros autores e educadores ". — RON ROSSWAY, presidente do Denver Trading Group “Robert abalou a cena comercial com seu primeiro livro, Dynamic Trading, que foi homenageado como nosso 'Livro do Ano' em 1997. Seu novo livro, High Probability Trading Strategies, é igualmente digno e uma leitura obrigatória para todos os operadores sérios. " — FRANK ANTHONY TAUCHER, autor do Almanaque do Supertrader Almanac / Commodity Trader.

Negociação de alta probabilidade Capítulo 10 Fazendo as negociações de alta probabilidade.

Author by : Marcel Link.

Editora: McGraw Hill Professional.

Formato disponível: PDF, ePub, Mobi.

Total Download : 623.

Tamanho do arquivo: 48,8 Mb.

Description : This chapter is from High-Probability Trading, the no-nonsense book that takes a unuely blunt look at the realities of trading. Repleto de exemplos da vida real e destinados ao uso por comerciantes de curto e longo prazo, detalha um programa abrangente para enfrentar os primeiros meses perigosos e se tornar um comerciante rentável.

Negociação de Probabilidade Alta Capítulo 7 Usando Osciladores.

Author by : Marcel Link.

Editora: McGraw Hill Professional.

Formato disponível: PDF, ePub, Mobi.

Total Download : 547.

Tamanho do arquivo: 54,8 Mb.

Description : This chapter is from High-Probability Trading, the no-nonsense book that takes a unuely blunt look at the realities of trading. Repleto de exemplos da vida real e destinados ao uso por comerciantes de curto e longo prazo, detalha um programa abrangente para enfrentar os primeiros meses perigosos e se tornar um comerciante rentável.

Forex Conquistado.

Author by : John L. Person.

Editora: John Wiley & Sons.

Formato disponível: PDF, ePub, Mobi.

Total Download : 551.

Tamanho do arquivo: 55,7 Mb.

Description : Praise for FOREX CONQUERED "In this amazing book, John covers it all. From trading systems to money management to emotions, he explains easily how to pull money consistently from the most complicated financial market in the world. John packs more new, innovative information into this book than I have ever seen in a trading book before." - Robert Booker, operador independente de câmbio "John Person é um dos poucos talentos raros que não são qualificados para ajudar os operadores a entender o processo de negociação bem-sucedida. Com os mercados de hoje cada vez mais desafiadores, John cortou o essencial - Necessárias ferramentas de negociação forex. Esta publicação clara e bem organizada é um grande passo em frente para ajudar os comerciantes a ganhar vantagem. Eu recomendo o Forex Conquered como um valioso manual para os traders tanto aspirantes quanto experientes. " — Sandy Jadeja, analista-chefe de mercado e editora da Bolsa de Valores de Londres, Londres, Inglaterra "Forex Conquered é um título arrojado, mas este livro oferece as ferramentas necessárias para o sucesso da negociação forex. Não há fluff aqui, apenas a sabedoria de um veterano que eu sempre respeitado e seguido ". - Michael Kahn, editor, carta do Quick Takes Market e colunista, on-line do Barron "Esta é uma visão maravilhosa e profunda da explicação da análise técnica e das diretrizes prudentes de administração do dinheiro no mercado forex". — Blake Morrow, Presidente, 4XMadeEasy “Forex Conquered é uma contribuição significativa para o crescente número de livros sobre negociação forex. John Person fornece uma visão profissional da negociação forex que os leitores poderão usar como um guia para estratégias e táticas que funcionam. O escopo do livro abrange mais do que o forex e inclui aspectos relevantes de futuros e opções de negociação. Ele deve ser lido e depois relido! " — Abe Cofnas, Presidente, Learn4x Nota: CD-ROM / DVD e outros materiais suplementares não são incluídos como parte do arquivo eBook.